Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x593beedabd8e5dc1e50b788d7991466303d7473cf72dad2dc07572284a1e17ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 24c | 1,144$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.14 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 73c | 619$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…209abacked No | 78c | 528.25$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 75c | 509.14$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 73c | 445$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.15 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 25c | 365.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 27c | 330$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 15c | 303.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed No | 75c | 281.07$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 276.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 75c | 207.79$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…97debacked Yes | 24c | 190.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 178.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 175.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 67c | 139.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 61c | 110.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 34c | 110.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 39c | 107.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4e…3507backed Yes | 24c | 83.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…8dc6backed Yes | 24c | 80.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 29c | 75.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 72c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…0809backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7e…2fe2backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…e581backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…d707backed No | 79c | 36.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 33.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…1533backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 72c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?this page
- Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.