Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4386a20987169ab26ae5e64173604feb60cf11c5caa1429411cbda789bb6563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 58c | 340$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 26c | 270.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.44 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 32c | 168.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.96 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 151.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 37c | 148.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 65c | 103.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 65c | 92.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 38c | 89.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 79c | 74.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 71c | 69.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 17c | 69.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb44c…8e6cbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…97debacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…2697backed Yes | 79c | 39.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdb…2fc5backed Yes | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…e581backed Yes | 65c | 30.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…3281backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4e…3507backed Yes | 66c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 72c | 20.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed7e…2fe2backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 73c | 15.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?this page
- Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.