Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c3f3fc915f1b9363ee32b3a868c3bf48a4488760c9484850d87b33ff5e2903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x766e…3281backed No | 6c | 1,974$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 26c | 1,271$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.29 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 51c | 778.13$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed No | 52c | 774.22$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 55c | 492.6$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.36 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 37c | 371.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Yes | 62c | 321.51$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 57c | 236.59$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 41c | 211.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 57c | 175.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 60c | 121.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…8dc6backed No | 34c | 120.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 62c | 120.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…d1c2backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…d46bbacked No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 33c | 99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 54c | 88.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 81.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 74.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes | 73c | 68.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…3ff4backed No | 38c | 65.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 47c | 55.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 39c | 52.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…3082backed Yes | 56c | 51.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…9831backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…0a71backed No | 57c | 49.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…9658backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 63c | 42.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed No | 39c | 36.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…d707backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a076backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?this page
- Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.