TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5552…d1c2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 55 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 5, 2025, EDT2821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+236.4%+$129.07
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.06
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.85
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+75.8%+$78.76
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+224.2%+$23.32
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.13
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+426.3%+$85.26
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.02
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.37
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.03
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$24.69
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.14
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$40.38
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$13.89
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$66.48
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+429.4%+$360.31
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$42.38
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30.62
Will Inter Milan beat PSG in the first half? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Inter win on 2025-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$160.91
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.2
Champions League: Inter Milan vs. Barcelona (To Advance)backed Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$17.95
Will Inter win on 2025-04-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.52
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+1,032%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP dip to $1.90 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+2,036.4%+$239.05
Will XRP dip to $2.00 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+27.7%+$3.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+146.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+69.3%+$28.66
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+274.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+274.1%+$54.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$19.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.