Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9247460d116b011f7887a104ccd2b3d9c6573843bdc33305dd332b564c9b9f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $772,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $551,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $772,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 37,248$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.53 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 22,317$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.01 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 15c | 18,879$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,893.95 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 0c | 18,824$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 18,652$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…a3a4backed Yes | 6c | 18,051$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 0c | 15,458$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 15c | 13,724$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.18 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 3c | 12,239$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.24 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 25c | 11,574$2,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,943.28 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…3bd3backed Yes | 1c | 10,676$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea6…a73bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 0c | 8,685$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 17c | 8,427$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.14 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 6,841$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.79 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 19c | 6,186$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,100$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 12c | 5,443$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.39 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,356$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 16c | 5,153$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 10c | 4,795$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.55 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 4,089$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.59 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…c63fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 15c | 3,999$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.65 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 17c | 3,839$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.91 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 0c | 3,769$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 25c | 3,739$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.89 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 23c | 3,732$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.98 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 24c | 3,684$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.32 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 5c | 3,520$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 6c | 3,196$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 32c | 2,953$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.52 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 6c | 2,941$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 25c | 2,738$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.77 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 8c | 2,526$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.39 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 17c | 2,401$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.62 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 2c | 2,395$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 9c | 2,283$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 18c | 2,278$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 77c | 2,240$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.22 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 19c | 2,126$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 16c | 2,022$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.63 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 9c | 1,944$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.53 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 27c | 1,930$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.87 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 8c | 1,778$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 1,681$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f1d4backed Yes | 36c | 1,681$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 6c | 1,670$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,560$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 24c | 1,509$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.62 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 9c | 1,492$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 18c | 1,477$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.68 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes | 28c | 1,450$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 6c | 1,400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 26c | 1,329$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 23c | 1,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…fc5fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,288$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 1,281$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…951cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,276$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 26c | 1,256$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.78 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…50acbacked Yes | 29c | 1,204$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,191$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,173$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 71c | 1,153$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.72 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 8c | 1,150$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 14c | 1,123$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 1,046$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,006$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.53 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…a121backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…07eebacked Yes | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 8c | 995.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 9c | 989.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 30c | 901$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 29c | 887.57$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 24c | 879.79$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.78 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 13c | 866.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 28c | 857.14$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 24c | 837.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…17e5backed Yes | 28c | 804.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 21c | 787.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.41 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 26c | 784.59$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.53 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179b…5ac5backed Yes | 2c | 759.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 5c | 749.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…c0a4backed Yes | 28c | 733.92$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 6c | 730.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 14c | 717.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 23c | 700.78$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 29c | 685$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 6c | 678.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…b904backed Yes | 33c | 612.06$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.98 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc5…afe2backed Yes | 8c | 604.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.