Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf915cb4215c47d7660c6ac3c2c19a587bcabd31c2fd0853c59b151cd5e62f91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $565,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 36,525$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.92 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 12,399$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…e7f7backed Yes | 0c | 10,999$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14d…22f8backed Yes | 1c | 9,690$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f34…e683backed Yes | 1c | 6,417$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…2ad3backed Yes | 0c | 5,356$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…2b3bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,760$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…e50bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,697$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…13b2backed Yes | 1c | 4,673$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Yes | 1c | 4,634$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…d54ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,621$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…4ab0backed Yes | 1c | 4,572$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fd…5ae0backed Yes | 1c | 4,375$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c6…8cc9backed Yes | 1c | 3,992$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…81aebacked Yes | 1c | 3,925$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,672$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,614$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…c533backed Yes | 1c | 3,534$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52d…b59dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,523$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…63d2backed Yes | 1c | 3,523$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,265$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 2c | 3,203$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0116…a295backed Yes | 2c | 3,194$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e34…df93backed Yes | 1c | 3,127$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf015…fc55backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,965$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…53c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,770$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 4c | 2,756$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…08c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,739$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…57c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,594$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…06cbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,532$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…112ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,520$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…2721backed Yes | 2c | 2,475$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…9ad6backed Yes | 1c | 2,413$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24cd…0b9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,306$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,014$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8921…42a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,006$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,899$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…3345backed Yes | 3c | 1,882$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…a151backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…fe0cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,796$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed03…8cd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,794$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…0df3backed Yes | 1c | 1,716$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 4c | 1,700$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c8…510dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,689$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…e9bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,649$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…f6e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,598$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3f…19fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,559$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ae…b42fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,559$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,541$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…e3d1backed Yes | 4c | 1,462$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f6…363abacked Yes | 2c | 1,407$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…abb1backed Yes | 3c | 1,384$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,337$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…3922backed Yes | 2c | 1,290$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9508…21e6backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 8c | 1,240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 3c | 1,212$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f59…fc8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,177$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…454cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,168$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,131$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9398backed Yes | 2c | 1,129$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…415fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,080$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,002$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 7c | 999.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…6986backed Yes | 3c | 910.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 2c | 899.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…9550backed Yes | 3c | 874.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…b816backed Yes | 3c | 824.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb769…f3a2backed Yes | 3c | 823.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f34…3b43backed Yes | 3c | 813.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…ff87backed Yes | 3c | 802.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5477…4d99backed Yes | 3c | 799.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…ad65backed Yes | 3c | 785.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…9593backed Yes | 3c | 772.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…d653backed Yes | 3c | 750.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ae…6a57backed Yes | 3c | 695.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…9c83backed Yes | 3c | 693.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 2c | 646.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…e893backed Yes | 3c | 642.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 3c | 636.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…3a3cbacked Yes | 4c | 631.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 4c | 509$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed Yes | 2c | 499.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 4c | 427.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…f5bbbacked Yes | 6c | 360.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 8c | 340.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd987…9381backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 3c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.