Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6143fdf36e885b7a7123760038e7ad830fbd1e0bbdb151c8d19cd193c4a54c01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $914,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $535,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $914,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 431 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 55,548$3,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.36 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 14c | 40,000$5,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,558.83 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 32,869$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.27 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 23c | 28,409$6,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,563.34 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 25,160$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 23,561$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.56 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 21c | 19,723$4,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,213.93 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 17,769$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.51 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 4c | 11,000$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 0c | 10,504$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea6…a73bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,008$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 11c | 9,261$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 8,707$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.42 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed No | 79c | 8,148$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.79 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 1c | 7,810$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 10c | 7,661$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.75 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 10c | 7,040$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.43 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 5c | 7,023$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.82 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 21c | 6,795$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.02 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 5c | 6,098$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.73 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 4c | 5,962$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,656$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.9 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed Yes | 3c | 5,409$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 27c | 5,251$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.9 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,175$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f1d4backed Yes | 29c | 5,035$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…a3a4backed Yes | 10c | 4,974$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,856$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 24c | 4,740$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.84 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 5c | 4,728$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 14c | 4,576$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.78 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,540$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.27 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…951cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,279$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 4,236$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 13c | 4,081$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e8…687ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…a252backed Yes | 10c | 3,890$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 24c | 3,782$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.04 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,778$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 9c | 3,714$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.82 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 23c | 3,563$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.25 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 3c | 3,394$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…6cc6backed Yes | 8c | 3,363$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.36 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…9207backed Yes | 14c | 3,307$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 37c | 3,287$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.31 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 18c | 3,228$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.92 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e99…c594backed Yes | 5c | 3,198$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 16c | 3,158$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.66 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 19c | 3,058$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,932$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,908$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.62 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…2f6ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,877$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 21c | 2,830$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.53 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 15c | 2,732$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.1 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe642…9440backed Yes | 7c | 2,619$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,546$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.13 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…718abacked No | 78c | 2,506$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…3bd3backed Yes | 8c | 2,487$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 2,485$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 20c | 2,481$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.14 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,438$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 9c | 2,415$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.51 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 3c | 2,405$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,359$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.48 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…d38bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,274$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 17c | 2,255$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 28c | 2,239$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 23c | 2,150$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.52 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…6998backed Yes | 9c | 2,100$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 16c | 2,044$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.86 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked No | 78c | 2,011$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.82 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,990$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.64 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,896$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.63 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 18c | 1,889$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7dafbacked No | 76c | 1,870$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…130dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,870$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 27c | 1,855$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.06 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,813$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 12c | 1,788$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 24c | 1,778$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.76 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 1,754$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 23c | 1,751$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +176.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 2c | 1,669$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 21c | 1,661$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.41 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…4e13backed Yes | 27c | 1,644$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f34…e683backed Yes | 13c | 1,619$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 8c | 1,590$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 4c | 1,578$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,506$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,484$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.6 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,472$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 78c | 1,461$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.74 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,449$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…c516backed Yes | 5c | 1,433$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 21c | 1,377$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.49 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…c0a4backed Yes | 28c | 1,342$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 20c | 1,327$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.4 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 14c | 1,253$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.53 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 10c | 1,250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.