Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb178547e84095b4a312392a4d703268f372935daec86e5795305db424c3ab00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,019,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $567,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,019,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 66,655$2,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.03 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 63,796$4,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,176.36 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 3c | 37,911$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.95 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 14c | 24,986$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,379.58 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f1d4backed Yes | 11c | 22,115$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 20,854$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.94 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 9c | 20,443$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.89 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 11c | 20,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 7c | 18,055$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.43 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,810$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.34 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 14c | 14,353$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.72 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 17c | 10,002$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.61 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 15c | 9,956$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.53 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 8,719$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.07 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 18c | 8,512$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.84 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 11c | 7,845$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.94 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 14c | 7,740$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.66 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…a3a4backed Yes | 7c | 7,569$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 6,813$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.26 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 14c | 6,553$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.32 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 16c | 6,408$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.97 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 18c | 5,875$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.57 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 5,695$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.19 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,682$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.58 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 5c | 5,535$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 13c | 5,409$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.3 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 19c | 5,303$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.36 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…27eebacked Yes | 1c | 5,258$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 13c | 5,101$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…d181backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5484backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…997dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e8…687ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…5795backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…e564backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 17c | 4,860$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 9c | 4,563$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.49 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…b570backed Yes | 13c | 4,562$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 10c | 4,384$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f34…e683backed Yes | 11c | 4,111$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 19c | 3,784$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.08 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 14c | 3,686$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.29 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,556$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 6c | 3,535$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f9…a80cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,480$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 11c | 3,419$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.03 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 11c | 3,415$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.75 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,387$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 18c | 3,310$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.35 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 9c | 3,292$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…718abacked Yes | 16c | 3,235$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked Yes | 25c | 3,208$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,154$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.82 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 6c | 3,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 3,036$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.09 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 2,982$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.44 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67f7…bad9backed Yes | 32c | 2,978$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 14c | 2,905$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.2 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 7c | 2,688$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.32 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 2,677$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.3 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…951cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,532$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,478$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 16c | 2,270$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.27 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…ba41backed Yes | 18c | 2,201$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…77f1backed Yes | 2c | 2,090$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 2,086$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 2,049$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 22c | 2,023$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.29 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 7c | 2,003$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 12c | 2,002$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,991$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 16c | 1,844$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.34 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,797$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…43ecbacked No | 77c | 1,763$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d6…f927backed Yes | 23c | 1,763$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,713$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 12c | 1,696$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.46 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…5579backed Yes | 21c | 1,653$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,652$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 12c | 1,634$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.51 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 15c | 1,623$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 1,597$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…4e13backed Yes | 10c | 1,596$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…d279backed No | 79c | 1,569$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 78cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,558$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…6cc6backed Yes | 17c | 1,541$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.46 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 13c | 1,449$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.12 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked Yes | 30c | 1,410$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.23 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 7c | 1,404$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…aa14backed Yes | 15c | 1,336$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,309$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…5051backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +308%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,299$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 80c | 1,279$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.09 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 14c | 1,263$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 12c | 1,253$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.