Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff0d0d0ce93eb5e5c5f97f6d2a7cbdc818675b6a970dec93ef8d092fcf5f7682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $751,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $455,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $751,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f8…5573backed Yes | 0c | 57,565$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 47,577$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.68 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 28,360$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 0c | 25,349$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 0c | 25,093$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…9389backed Yes | 0c | 21,240$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 11c | 20,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 18,955$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.61 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 15,840$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.56 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 14,163$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.86 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f1d4backed Yes | 1c | 12,226$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,538$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 0c | 7,950$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…6d28backed Yes | 0c | 6,543$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 1c | 6,441$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 4,987$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.45 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes | 12c | 4,924$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 13c | 4,718$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.21 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 0c | 4,692$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,788$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…e7f7backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…c516backed Yes | 0c | 3,444$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,274$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 6c | 2,283$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,170$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.11 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 14c | 2,109$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.27 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 3c | 2,109$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…bfb2backed Yes | 14c | 1,916$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,896$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,858$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,780$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 4c | 1,689$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 8c | 1,555$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…718abacked Yes | 6c | 1,514$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 1,456$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…c821backed Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,334$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…0602backed Yes | 15c | 1,312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,302$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.27 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,299$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…6cc6backed Yes | 15c | 1,295$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,279$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,228$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,040$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,024$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 6c | 1,010$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,003$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes | 1c | 999.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3772…e3f7backed Yes | 3c | 998.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 950.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 943.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 15c | 894.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…dd04backed Yes | 1c | 869.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 4c | 854.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 6c | 849.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecf…c6ccbacked Yes | 14c | 738.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 15c | 650.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes | 16c | 631.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 5c | 580.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Yes | 4c | 510.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 3c | 506.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…b27abacked Yes | 5c | 499.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 9c | 494.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…6c27backed Yes | 4c | 447.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…aa80backed Yes | 16c | 443.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 5c | 439.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 15c | 436.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 5c | 434.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…1a68backed Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +514.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 13c | 423.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 4c | 396$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe642…9440backed Yes | 15c | 393.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…ccecbacked Yes | 15c | 380.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…0199backed Yes | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…087abacked Yes | 4c | 376.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…bbcfbacked Yes | 15c | 371.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 16c | 364.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 6c | 359.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.