Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6793300fddbb89c73cb40da39d11e8c0401a382fc0489a263d671b73338146d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $307,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 18,466$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.65 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 12,270$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.21 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…e7f7backed Yes | 0c | 7,584$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 0c | 6,567$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 7c | 4,105$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,302$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…f384backed Yes | 2c | 3,268$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,983$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f34…e683backed Yes | 1c | 2,935$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,902$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,654$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…018dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,388$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Yes | 1c | 2,364$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…2721backed Yes | 1c | 2,335$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3031…9e78backed Yes | 2c | 2,255$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,161$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…bf41backed Yes | 2c | 2,151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…6b36backed Yes | 2c | 2,148$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,079$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf015…fc55backed Yes | 2c | 2,078$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…e97ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,975$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…77fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,885$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 12c | 1,812$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…6cc6backed Yes | 12c | 1,694$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…2756backed Yes | 1c | 1,647$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc9…befbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,580$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…08d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,561$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…3922backed Yes | 2c | 1,539$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…2ad3backed Yes | 2c | 1,537$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ae…6a57backed Yes | 1c | 1,532$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125f…8375backed Yes | 2c | 1,471$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 6c | 1,460$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 1c | 1,460$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0116…a295backed Yes | 2c | 1,422$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…08c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,412$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,404$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…d96ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,385$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,282$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…d182backed Yes | 4c | 1,273$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…5e95backed Yes | 2c | 1,256$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3f…19fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,234$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82d…d465backed Yes | 2c | 1,231$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…fb97backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…45bebacked Yes | 2c | 1,174$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…e50bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,164$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,161$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…d54ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…0df3backed Yes | 2c | 1,114$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…7fdebacked Yes | 3c | 1,098$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe696…a278backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d6…86f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…b806backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50a…19b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,006$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…c765backed Yes | 2c | 1,003$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…b8ebbacked Yes | 2c | 989.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebc…dd8abacked Yes | 1c | 946.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…3158backed Yes | 2c | 944.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…9550backed Yes | 2c | 924.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4b3fbacked Yes | 3c | 885.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…abc1backed Yes | 1c | 876.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…57c4backed Yes | 3c | 850.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb564…282fbacked Yes | 2c | 824.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 2c | 799.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e8…0b38backed Yes | 3c | 778.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 757.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 6c | 699.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 7c | 699.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 3c | 675.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…e490backed Yes | 4c | 665.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…1e46backed Yes | 5c | 570.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 5c | 500.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…d653backed Yes | 4c | 483.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 9c | 450$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…0048backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 11c | 349.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 6c | 310$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…a99cbacked Yes | 17c | 263.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed Yes | 5c | 245.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…f5bbbacked Yes | 9c | 227.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.