Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56a19cc92a36d90e7f38c8d0a45da8362d45c8525a766db9558153205fb5d3cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $742,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $742,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 52,252$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.6 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 40,163$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,164.51 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 3c | 23,524$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.91 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 1c | 22,915$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.06 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 22,813$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.17 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 20,936$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 11c | 20,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…951cbacked Yes | 1c | 16,018$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 1c | 14,934$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 11,946$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,806$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f1d4backed Yes | 1c | 10,099$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 1c | 8,140$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 13c | 6,123$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.84 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 1c | 6,010$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 14c | 5,150$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.83 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,126$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…8008backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…29aebacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…a1d6backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 4,352$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.03 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 12c | 4,292$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.02 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 2c | 4,174$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…27eebacked Yes | 1c | 4,171$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,005$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 1c | 3,513$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,503$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,357$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 1c | 3,213$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 3,112$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…2491backed Yes | 1c | 3,026$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,002$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.02 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 2c | 2,973$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 7c | 2,858$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 2,710$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.59 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 7c | 2,568$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.06 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.96 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,379$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…c93cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,335$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +155.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,312$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 2,199$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 1c | 2,148$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b0…83fcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 13c | 1,999$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.98 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 10c | 1,733$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…d281backed Yes | 1c | 1,614$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 8c | 1,567$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,519$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 8c | 1,462$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 9c | 1,410$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,401$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…ba41backed Yes | 1c | 1,365$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 1c | 1,359$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 6c | 1,292$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 9c | 1,220$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 1c | 1,103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 1c | 1,062$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,023$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 14c | 1,023$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…6cc6backed Yes | 17c | 1,002$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.76 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 6c | 999.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…d37cbacked Yes | 1c | 992.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed Yes | 7c | 990$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 12c | 974.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 2c | 969.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 12c | 947.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…dd04backed Yes | 1c | 934.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 16c | 928.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.54 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…239cbacked Yes | 1c | 901.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 8c | 885.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…5579backed Yes | 12c | 869.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 1c | 866.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 850$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 11c | 848.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 2c | 842.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…9189backed Yes | 15c | 838.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…d820backed Yes | 2c | 836.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 5c | 799.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…367abacked Yes | 1c | 769.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +209.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 14c | 714.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 15c | 677.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes | 15c | 676.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 2c | 639.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.