Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2082b73bebdbad1eab3cdfa45f2645848e114eefe029b26962432f26029a8022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $804,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $804,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $804,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 37c | 26,414$9,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,746.91 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 23,120$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.67 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd7…4472backed No | 0c | 11,633$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 75c | 11,159$8,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,841.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 78c | 10,550$8,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.19 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…9dd2backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 44c | 9,458$4,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,312 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 15c | 8,433$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,147.25 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 7c | 8,365$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.76 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 14c | 7,634$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,530.86 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 22c | 7,112$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,527.23 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 33c | 6,228$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,179.01 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 58c | 5,772$3,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,410.58 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 53c | 5,705$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.44 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 5c | 5,636$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 60c | 5,535$3,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.57 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 55c | 5,375$2,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.83 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f1d4backed Yes | 27c | 5,194$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,806 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 30c | 5,046$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,521.86 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 30c | 4,815$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,372.64 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 27c | 4,617$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.04 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 78c | 4,349$3,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.13 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 15c | 3,958$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,357.22 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 11c | 3,884$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.59 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 30c | 3,813$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 11c | 3,759$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,358.98 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 12c | 3,656$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,201.13 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 41c | 3,552$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.62 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 19c | 3,525$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.51 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 3,396$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.86 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed No | 1c | 3,355$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed No | 3c | 3,223$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 38c | 3,194$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978.34 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 7c | 2,896$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.18 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 64c | 2,866$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.71 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,713$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.39 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 48c | 2,612$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.32 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 25c | 2,550$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.9 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 12c | 2,524$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220.09 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 12c | 2,485$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +176.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 52c | 2,484$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 55c | 2,473$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.76 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 38c | 2,332$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.57 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 2,300$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 62c | 2,234$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.24 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 38c | 2,228$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.46 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 49c | 2,128$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 42c | 2,124$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,096$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.49 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 10c | 2,063$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.41 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,050$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 30c | 1,983$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.23 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…20b7backed Yes | 64c | 1,898$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 5c | 1,867$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,793$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 24c | 1,744$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.57 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.41 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 19c | 1,492$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.24 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…b570backed Yes | 20c | 1,482$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 16c | 1,452$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.44 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,423$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.04 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 18c | 1,355$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.69 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 64c | 1,278$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.98 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 66c | 1,270$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,250$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.93 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 1,224$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.69 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,210$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.93 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 26c | 1,196$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.06 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 35c | 1,190$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.64 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 31c | 1,106$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.72 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 23c | 1,103$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.76 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 28c | 1,094$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.1 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 11c | 1,050$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.1 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 10c | 1,043$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.95 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,020$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.66 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.01 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.4 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 10c | 999$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 9c | 998$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 65c | 978.14$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.58 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 20c | 975.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.8 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 50c | 967.22$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.84 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…5051backed Yes | 9c | 951.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +308%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 56c | 891.56$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.97 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…05d6backed Yes | 62c | 871.82$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 52c | 869.51$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.73 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 44c | 859.25$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…f878backed Yes | 6c | 843.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +446.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 29c | 838.11$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.38 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 834.13$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.76 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.33 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 9c | 832.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.57 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 14c | 824.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.73 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed No | 24c | 821$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.67 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 13c | 810.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.56 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 800.06$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.65 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed No | 4c | 796.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.