TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x377e…a9d3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2025, EDT1915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+230.6%+$230.56
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+943%+$942.95
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$460.48
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,013Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+59%+$597.24
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 125-149 times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$579Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$578.6
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$198.48
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$27
All 19 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+132.6%+$132.56
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$123.2
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$134.51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,517Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+221.2%+$3,356.93
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$864Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+123.1%+$1,063.85
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$233.69
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$211.84
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$272.3
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$496.24
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$14.78
All 3 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.