TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,748,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,910,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,748,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 749 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x551e…b0e0backed No8c241,777$18,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,722.322055%11 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8196…f196backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No0c99,800$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.83129%9 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf886…3066backed No1c98,026$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.31633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No45c96,992$43,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,536.521258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked No4c86,195$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.941040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed No6c82,523$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.191936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xed72…e319backed Yes76c63,955$48,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,358.51425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x776a…b93abacked No1c63,440$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+88.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef19…91e7backed No2c58,601$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes47c56,065$26,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,941.453164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6683…6a84backed No0c54,278$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No3c52,982$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.0815125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No0c51,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.313920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c84…d132backed No0c48,780$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No1c44,573$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.054818.8%9 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4076…c448backed No0c44,544$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c62…9b49backed No0c42,380$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes52c39,621$20,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,835.771060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c39,370$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.77712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda24…6cf5backed No8c39,361$3,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,052.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b5…2891backed No2c37,276$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26dc…e492backed No1c36,818$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No34c36,488$12,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,503.8423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed No1c35,088$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6465…e38fbacked No2c34,028$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.525461.1%33 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5937…bd9bbacked No1c33,588$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No1c33,000$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.613230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed No32c32,064$10,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,278.83933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be8…0ef2backed No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7830…783fbacked No22c30,757$6,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,751.291435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bf…85d7backed No2c29,860$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No6c29,673$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.943953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf861…b529backed No0c27,489$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked No9c27,318$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89e…66e1backed No1c25,952$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No1c22,141$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.531010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-82.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes76c21,838$16,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,285.312965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed No19c21,596$4,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,205.158549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No1c21,020$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.943839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f4…5352backed No1c20,168$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9670…feb5backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No6c19,738$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.052437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed No1c19,527$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.13190%0 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed No1c19,496$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.364040%16 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x788b…5279backed No0c19,306$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed No1c19,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e66…0401backed No44c18,674$8,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,308.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a5f…cbbfbacked No3c18,355$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No16c18,037$2,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.74450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No7c18,000$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1931650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No1c17,167$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.371020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f70…b854backed No1c16,400$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No67c16,266$10,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,903.044459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed No6c16,140$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-50.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4776…f545backed Yes64c15,660$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,659.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2d…b371backed No1c15,456$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a8…0261backed No26c14,850$3,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,906.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No12c14,191$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.997525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d0…2a2abacked No3c14,034$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No30c13,606$4,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,052.073537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa55b…f844backed No1c13,157$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked No6c13,100$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.18825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85bd…ec4bbacked No0c13,018$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…4a78backed No2c12,757$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No1c12,657$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.468927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe03e…09a5backed No1c12,608$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No1c12,286$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.866317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcca…aebabacked No1c12,154$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-63.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed No1c12,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…5ddabacked No1c11,899$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbedb…602cbacked No3c11,799$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No3c11,754$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.192638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a5…7095backed No5c11,396$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed No1c11,233$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf937…6b43backed No1c10,846$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No50c10,820$5,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,444.414533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb7c…97e7backed No1c10,546$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.91812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No20c10,147$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.3215855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No18c10,029$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.13650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No50c10,012$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.2514456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5e…d2f6backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No4c10,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.33per pick44cpaid+142.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc748…aaa4backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…021cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x296b…2cf2backed No1c10,000$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed No1c9,967$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6275…ab3fbacked No48c9,559$4,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,615333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x108c…7d81backed No22c9,461$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf6…f01bbacked No0c8,329$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes46c8,129$3,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,367.455541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x070e…9dc8backed No2c8,110$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No28c8,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2401127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…40d4backed No48c7,937$3,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,816.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes61c7,895$4,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,101.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed4…3ccbbacked No0c7,775$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a4…36d8backed No2c7,752$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes77c7,577$5,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.8811542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c9…e070backed Yes67c7,455$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd330…e9e8backed No62c7,380$4,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,539.57560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.