Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131674286ab60d1e2ef34596ae30e7f162180e8016fdff044e4c6762b5ded92f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $774,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $774,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 70,619$4,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,934.37 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 7c | 30,356$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.92 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 21,462$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105.97 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 13c | 21,268$2,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.33 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 18c | 19,818$3,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,653.53 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 17,016$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.32 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 2c | 11,984$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.71 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 18c | 9,865$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 7c | 8,018$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.25 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,267$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.44 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 17c | 7,118$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 15c | 6,918$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.64 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 12c | 5,898$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.92 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,756$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.29 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 5,738$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.58 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 5c | 5,178$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.56 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 9c | 4,981$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.4 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 0c | 4,519$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 16c | 4,450$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.04 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 8c | 4,170$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.1 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 17c | 3,720$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.78 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 4c | 3,700$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 6c | 3,605$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.29 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 5c | 3,464$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.21 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 15c | 3,457$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 16c | 3,367$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.04 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…8dcabacked Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…f58bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,997$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…1e6cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,926$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 11c | 2,804$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f71…722dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,769$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 12c | 2,765$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.62 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe572…6241backed Yes | 10c | 2,747$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 8c | 2,665$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 9c | 2,608$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 9c | 2,576$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…4664backed Yes | 14c | 2,525$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 17c | 2,395$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.29 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,384$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.26 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 7c | 2,287$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 8c | 2,241$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.47 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 2,201$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.51 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…4598backed Yes | 13c | 2,108$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 2,070$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 12c | 2,048$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…ae83backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 3c | 1,950$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…d801backed Yes | 5c | 1,909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,845$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.02 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,665$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.38 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 9c | 1,647$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 12c | 1,632$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.81 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…ae5cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,610$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 11c | 1,549$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.37 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 17c | 1,536$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,509$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…d549backed Yes | 13c | 1,446$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 12c | 1,445$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.34 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 13c | 1,435$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 12c | 1,370$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 10c | 1,369$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 14c | 1,367$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Yes | 8c | 1,309$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,309$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.71 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…87d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…65c9backed Yes | 11c | 1,226$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 12c | 1,226$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 4c | 1,224$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 14c | 1,188$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.86 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,126$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…3e96backed Yes | 13c | 1,103$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd4…3474backed Yes | 18c | 1,092$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 9c | 1,091$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 8c | 1,089$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 18c | 1,072$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.52 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 17c | 1,063$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 19c | 1,033$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.26 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…4d6ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,021$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,015$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…f44fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…c878backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…32ecbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4864…1351backed Yes | 14c | 983.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 18c | 963.28$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 930.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 16c | 922.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Yes | 7c | 916.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…b1d3backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 10c | 890.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-774 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.