Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x336d9d71a636ba2e5a6503dda043e630b6559e7c266aa0f7c9b8cf6b6f08f5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 20,033$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.1 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fe…7ea9backed Yes | 0c | 13,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 5c | 6,246$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.93 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,301$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.44 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 9c | 3,825$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.32 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…8ff5backed Yes | 0c | 3,081$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…9314backed Yes | 4c | 2,653$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…488bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,504$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 2,225$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 1c | 1,935$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 5c | 1,812$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 12c | 1,775$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.12 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 1c | 1,718$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 1,700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 4c | 1,595$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,513$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 11c | 1,478$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,458$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,262$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 9c | 1,236$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 9c | 1,233$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,031$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,027$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 4c | 1,014$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 8c | 983.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…711fbacked Yes | 13c | 964.25$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 6c | 903$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 6c | 899.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 10c | 871.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…0810backed Yes | 10c | 860$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 4c | 799.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…6b3abacked Yes | 7c | 676.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 5c | 676.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 5c | 665.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 637.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 8c | 612.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 6c | 576$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 3c | 551.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 8c | 532$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…c821backed Yes | 10c | 502$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 12c | 486.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 6c | 429.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 5c | 407$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 10c | 399.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 5c | 382.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 4c | 380.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 8c | 333$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 5c | 267.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…da61backed Yes | 9c | 211.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 7c | 204.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c1…bb8dbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…3eafbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…03a2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…5432backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd184…d219backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-774 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.