Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0f0702539d88e8f5496570a7ffc02d1536bffa53b1285883437d45ae919f1e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $386,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $269,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 2c | 46,764$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.11 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 24,826$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.94 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,537$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 0c | 10,543$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 525 | 9.9%52 W · 473 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 1c | 9,491$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 6,152$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 695 | 15.7%109 W · 586 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 4c | 3,990$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,938$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…14babacked Yes | 1c | 3,764$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…80c9backed Yes | 1c | 3,602$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,313$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 3c | 1,999$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,935$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 167 | 7.8%13 W · 154 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0359…3bdebacked Yes | 1c | 1,363$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Yes | 2c | 1,061$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 2c | 856.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 758.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 4c | 635.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 147 | 15.6%23 W · 124 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 3c | 521.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 4c | 521.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…9dcbbacked Yes | 2c | 502$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…0423backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…f11dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 2c | 494.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992f…6c44backed Yes | 3c | 398.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed Yes | 3c | 350.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 332.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 4c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-774 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.