TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa7f0…97bb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
139
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT2917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.49
76ers vs. Spursbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Hornets vs. Thunderbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.91
Magic vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Cavaliers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+362.8%+$83.43
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Bulls vs. Sunsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Wizards vs. Jazzbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Pelicans vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+532.3%+$112.43
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
76ers vs. Thunderbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Raptors vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.5
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$170.04
Clippers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+340.6%+$235.02
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.6
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Warriors vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$24
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$51.4
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2025, EDT267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-86.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.53
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.42
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.65
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.51
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.44
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$15.86
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.04
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.09
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$322.04
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$437.6
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.09
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.46
Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.32
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.22
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$236.56
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.68
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+126.5%+$60.99
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$476.41
Will Trump post 130-139 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Trump post 100-109 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.43
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$406.83
Will Trump post 90-99 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$29.14
Will Trump post less than 80 times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$773Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$772.9
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Golden Knightsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.56
Sabres vs. Utahbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.96
Jets vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Panthers vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.42
Capitals vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Devils vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+102%+$21.83
Golden Knights vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+300%+$30
Predators vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$16.57
Avalanche vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.4
Oilers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Red Wings vs. Hurricanesbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Capitals vs. Kingsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.67
Blackhawks vs. Sharksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.1
Bruins vs. Senatorsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Canadiens vs. Krakenbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Sabres vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Rangers vs. Senatorsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$28.2
Sharks vs. Avalanchebacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Canadiens vs. Oilersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Bruins vs. Hurricanesbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Blues vs. Kingsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.32
All 21 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT1910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-77%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bryant vs. Michigan Statebacked Bryant · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.43
Xavier vs. Illinoisbacked Xavier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Oklahoma vs. UConnbacked Oklahoma · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.4
Akron vs. Arizonabacked Akron · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.38
Troy vs. Kentuckybacked Troy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Norfolk State vs. Floridabacked Norfolk State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Grand Canyon vs. Marylandbacked Grand Canyon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Vanderbilt vs. St. Mary'sbacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.72
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Dukebacked MSM · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.17
Colorado State vs. Memphisbacked Memphis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Robert Morris vs. Alabamabacked Robert Morris · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Nebraska Omaha vs. St. John'sbacked Nebraska Omaha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.63
Utah State vs. UCLAbacked Utah State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Drake vs. Missouribacked Drake · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+129.6%+$85.24
Yale vs. Texas A&Mbacked Yale · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Wofford vs. Tennesseebacked Wofford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.93
Kentucky vs. Alabamabacked Kentucky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Boise State vs. New Mexicobacked Boise State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$22.88
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+98%+$38.61
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.8
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+72.7%+$23.03
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.2
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.32
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.86
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+125.6%+$22.27
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$29.5
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+44.9%+$17.97
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+805.6%+$110.44
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$28.95
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$34.59
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14.49
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.05
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.67
US military action against Iran before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.08
Will Donald Trump sign 15-19 executive orders in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Donald Trump sign 10-14 executive orders in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.43
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 46.5% on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.44
Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$24.4
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+128.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+357.3%+$165.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+132.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.12
Will the US sanction Russia before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+364.9%+$96.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$50.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.