Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c235bd675f65a4075177a277bc21ebf4cc55517ca1c2be1187d1a1faf6a6bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 8c | 2,750$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 10c | 1,357$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.25 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 34c | 1,239$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.37 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Yes | 22c | 927.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.2 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…94bcbacked Yes | 14c | 699.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.34 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 59c | 620.12$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.92 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 22c | 598.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 40c | 567.11$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.76 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 23c | 544.6$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.79 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…7996backed Yes | 40c | 450$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 36c | 364$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 11c | 340$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.7 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 49c | 253$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.1 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 38c | 204.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…fa70backed No | 60c | 190$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…c132backed No | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 149.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 64c | 100.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…4cdbbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 34c | 60.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 63c | 57.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 36c | 56.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 62c | 37.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x761e…e189backed Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 34.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.