Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign 15-19 executive orders in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66d2333bd0eaf84fc44c63e7ee844b5c4b6354f55cdef4ed0e8497a66f974fec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f4…d0e7backed Yes | 0c | 32,993$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 7,300$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.7 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 1,334$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.97 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 19c | 790.96$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…9b7abacked Yes | 4c | 759.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 18c | 750$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 2c | 704.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 485.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 413.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 18c | 322$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 6c | 260.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…c7afbacked Yes | 7c | 205.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 201.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 20c | 160$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 24c | 135$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 16c | 81.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign 15-19 executive orders in March?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign 10-14 executive orders in March?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 20-24 executive orders in March?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 25-29 executive orders in March?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 30 or more executive orders in March?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign less than 5 executive orders in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.