Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign 20-24 executive orders in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a5bca711de83676bfa8f4d74b09bf58e6fa5305f8150cd7395844092ddf26c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $316,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ff…6e4fbacked No | 51c | 76,704$39,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,584.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…fdc5backed Yes | 49c | 76,704$37,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,584.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb403…06f0backed Yes | 17c | 68,893$11,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,711.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 42c | 3,463$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 60c | 1,906$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.36 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 75c | 1,580$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 64c | 1,528$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 23c | 765$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.13 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked No | 66c | 582.1$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 59c | 427.85$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 50c | 388.55$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.02 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 331.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 311.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 74c | 272.35$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 29c | 249.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe13…c5ffbacked Yes | 45c | 224.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 30c | 207.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 42c | 206.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 24c | 199.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 46c | 186.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 44c | 147.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 47c | 132.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 45c | 124.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…9b7abacked Yes | 26c | 112.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 41c | 105.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed No | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…ed3abacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 76.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 54c | 60.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed No | 54c | 51.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…114abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…3051backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…a800backed Yes | 51c | 39.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 41c | 29.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…06ddbacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…40b7backed Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 24.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…4bfbbacked Yes | 46c | 24.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked No | 79c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ffbacked Yes | 50c | 22.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign 20-24 executive orders in March?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign 10-14 executive orders in March?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 15-19 executive orders in March?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 25-29 executive orders in March?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 30 or more executive orders in March?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign less than 5 executive orders in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.