TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump sign 20-24 executive orders in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$316,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$317,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,477 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05ff…6e4fbacked No51c76,704$39,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,584.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+129.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6cf…fdc5backed Yes49c76,704$37,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,584.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb403…06f0backed Yes17c68,893$11,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,711.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes42c3,463$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.391618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked No60c1,906$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.364242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No75c1,580$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.242352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No64c1,528$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.43540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+83.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes23c765$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.135322.6%12 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x967c…a16dbacked No66c582.1$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.092846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No59c427.85$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.488142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No50c388.55$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.0237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c331.1$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.051,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes34c311.78$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e8d…3b13backed No74c272.35$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.811540%6 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes29c249.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.135922%13 W · 46 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe13…c5ffbacked Yes45c224.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes24c210$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.46842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes30c207.59$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.465532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes42c206.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.58419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6711…7d95backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+62.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec4c…6994backed Yes24c199.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.921625%4 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes46c186.28$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes21c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.55437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes44c147.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9117238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed No54c135$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.64856.3%27 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed Yes47c132.47$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.772532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.672927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No45c124.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2916144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5824…9b7abacked Yes26c112.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x138e…42b4backed Yes49c110$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.824770.2%33 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes41c105.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.678817%15 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c1c…eb65backed No48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.151464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No76c90$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bc…ed3abacked No62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes45c76.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0956733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No54c60.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6713167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No79c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.57475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed No54c51.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.471752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.516643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee6…114abacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8167…3051backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-74.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed No79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.75673.2%41 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe461…9a34backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce6…a800backed Yes51c39.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.67119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c54…bd19backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes41c29.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.113724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfb…06ddbacked No59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…40b7backed Yes54c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.45933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No59c24.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.378256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c24.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9693…4bfbbacked Yes46c24.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a5…877dbacked No79c24.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6163…58ffbacked Yes50c22.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67e6…92c0backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+66.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9995…771dbacked No75c17.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.