TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x138e…42b4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
240
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 60 out of 100; worst AI at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4770.2%33 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.45
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.39
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$18.75
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$9.5
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.3%+$25.8
Will DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$5
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.5
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+68.4%+$53.77
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$14.47
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.64
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+50.8%+$24.87
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.4
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+90.3%+$42.91
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$26.02
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$9.5
Trump cabinet member out before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$5.58
Will Al Gore be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+41.9%+$18.11
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$4.41
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+54.3%+$28.05
Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.55
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.15
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+45.6%+$18.8
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$15.25
TikTok sale announced before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$21
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST3151.6%16 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$59.58
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17.21
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+32.9%+$5.35
Canada tariffs on China in effect before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.08
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+61.8%+$8.5
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.8
Canada backs out of F-35 deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$11.1
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.25
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.05
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+29.8%+$88.11
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.82
Will no new pope be elected in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+106.5%+$40.62
Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+88.4%+$13.23
Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.93
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$11.75
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+42.2%+$13.13
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+47.7%+$32.29
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.38
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.26
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.25
Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
Will the Conservatives win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$25.75
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$41.59
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.8
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2085%17 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.6%+$10
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57.3%+$42.35
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+46.5%+$31.75
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+30.3%+$6.36
Will Trump meet with Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$8.2
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+49%+$8.22
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+71%+$45.87
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.02
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.97
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+59.4%+$122
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+49.6%+$19.56
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+70.6%+$38.2
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$32
Will Zelensky wear suit next Trump meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$21.01
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+75.8%+$34.5
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+29.2%+$17.73
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+53.7%+$63.76
Will the US sanction Russia before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+65.9%+$36.72
Trump admin announces resumption of military aid to Ukraine in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.4
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
March Madness: Team from the SEC to win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+116.9%+$13.49
Will Connecticut win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$37
Will South Carolina win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.25
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+25.6%+$14.25
Will Johni Broome win the Wooden Award?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+61.7%+$10.38
Will Auburn make the 2025 Final Four?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.4
March Madness: Will 2 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$8.41
Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.88
Will Iowa State make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.02
Will a 14, 15, or 16 seed win in first round of NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Wisconsin win the Big Ten conference tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+97.5%+$71.6
Will Florida win the SEC Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$26.24
Will Tennessee win the SEC Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+57.1%+$7.27
Will Houston win the Big 12 conference tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.45
Will Auburn win the SEC Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.46
Will Michigan State win the Big Ten conference tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.73
Will Iowa State win the Big 12 conference tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
All 17 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Raphinha be the top Champions League scorer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.99
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top Champions League scorer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$3
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$15.6
Will Harry Kane be the top Champions League scorer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$9.2
Champions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real Madridbacked Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.15
Champions League Quarterfinals: Bayern vs. Inter Milanbacked Bayern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.85
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Croatia vs. Francebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$13.5
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Netherlands vs. Spainbacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+42.7%+$11
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Denmark vs. Portugalbacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+65.7%+$7.93
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Italy vs. Germanybacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+56.9%+$9.42
Will Paris Saint-Germain or Liverpool advance in the UCL Round of 16?backed Liverpool · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.26
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chile beat Paraguay?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
Will Germany beat Italybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.86
Will Italy beat Germanybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.9
Will Italy vs. Germany end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+25.3%+$10.44
Will Spain vs. Netherlands end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.18
Will Netherlands beat Spain?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+119.8%+$58.81
Will Portugal beat Denmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+50.1%+$18.75
Will Croatia beat France?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.54
Will Denmark beat Portugal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.67
Will France beat Croatia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+41.2%+$37.17
Will Denmark vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+62.2%+$28.75
All 11 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+35.3%+$11.75
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$25.39
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+54.3%+$51.42
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 China Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.75
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 China Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.36
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+34.9%+$9.2
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+28.9%+$44.53
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+39.6%+$18.2
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$135.98
Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.74
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$12.5
Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+112.4%+$22.14
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$82.69
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.75
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.44
Will 'Adolescence: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.06
Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.83
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.56
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+40.5%+$47.48
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+71%+$12.96
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 3 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+149.2%+$16.45
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Will Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders be drafted 1st and 2nd?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$20
Will the Patriots draft Travis Hunter in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.64
Will Shedeur Sanders be a top 5 draft pick?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+57.1%+$13.46
Will the Titans make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+53.2%+$48.82
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+44.5%+$12.67
Will Russell Wilson sign with the New York Giants?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$9.25
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2025, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.81
Will egg prices drop this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+34.5%+$18.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solana all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+39.5%+$21.25
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.35
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+59.6%+$34.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump bans China from buying US farmland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+39.6%+$21.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+26.3%+$50.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Indian Wells Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.