NFL · resolved market
Will Russell Wilson sign with the New York Giants?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e1c784bb9b6975d68213dd5043446763b4d798f5c33ff334cf6884ccbd35da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 43c | 537.34$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.15 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 40c | 348.18$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 63c | 191.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 147$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 130.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…d029backed Yes | 22c | 123.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +223.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 66c | 119.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x844e…bd4bbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 38c | 80.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 57c | 73.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0b77backed Yes | 32c | 66.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 22c | 59.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 47c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russell Wilson sign with the New York Giants?this page
- Will Russell Wilson sign with the Cleveland Browns?No won
- Will Russell Wilson sign with the Minnesota Vikings?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.