TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0c51…087c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: NHL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$748Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$747.96
Bucks vs. Sunsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+525%+$2,621.64
Warriors vs. Pistonsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$6,035Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,034.59
Suns vs. Spursbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
Warriors vs. Celticsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,235Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,234.96
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,561Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,561.45
76ers vs. Pistonsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$658Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$657.51
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$8,896Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,896.19
Hornets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12,792Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+25%+$3,198
Raptors vs. Heatbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,270Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+203%+$12,730
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$2.92
Suns vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+25%+$2.75
Celtics vs. Wizardsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25%+$2.75
All 15 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Penguinsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$2,200
Utah vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10,560Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10,559.71
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12,540Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+51.5%+$6,460
Kraken vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+51.5%+$5.67
Blue Jackets vs. Devilsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,990Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+138.1%+$5,510
Capitals vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$5,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$5,399.94
Capitals vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,010Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+100%+$1,010
All 7 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-68.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$70.5
Israel retaliates against Houthis by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$10.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,366Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,365.91
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,707Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,706.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+144.1%+$48.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+120%+$381.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$833Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$833
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trevvy vs. Oblivionbacked Trevvy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$459Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$459.49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.