TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$482,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$484,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x206c…2632backed No33c87,000$28,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,2901100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90fa…2ecdbacked Yes67c87,000$58,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,29010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8744…370bbacked No56c75,212$42,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,093.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001c…43f2backed Yes44c75,212$33,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,093.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No51c19,613$9,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,673.398864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x671b…eca0backed Yes5c9,912$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7759…6020backed Yes68c9,782$6,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,634.0930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No55c5,817$3,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,637.7411030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes5c5,020$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.241030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+246.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes5c4,084$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.07911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c3,536$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.7845738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No42c3,212$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.584020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c2,732$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5315615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes50c2,447$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.887951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf44d…60afbacked No68c2,344$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.491442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes7c2,237$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.755012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c2,024$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.171051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes14c1,792$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.436053.3%32 W · 28 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes17c1,582$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No78c1,390$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.412853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a00…6957backed Yes24c1,358$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes17c1,332$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.211926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf215…9114backed No58c1,090$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes21c1,055$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6571…9827backed Yes74c1,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a40…d801backed No70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x054a…013fbacked No26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+53%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a52…cecebacked Yes76c1,000$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c986.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.551,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cf…6d85backed Yes57c960$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4d…a15bbacked No43c960$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+82.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3c…ca91backed Yes6c951$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No17c900$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7461435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes24c893.09$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x259b…dafcbacked Yes41c891.12$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.341428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes45c851.41$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8425731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes53c840.08$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.9772935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked No39c800$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes77c764.33$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.528220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1091…7898backed Yes75c700$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x685d…b326backed No25c700$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes4c697.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…11fbbacked Yes4c687.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No37c681.44$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.922763%17 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8af5…36afbacked No66c677.32$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+175.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed No34c651$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.53633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes38c616.7$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8157426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.51020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No28c600$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43412636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd982…0ea9backed No68c589.81$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c546.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.172110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes44c494.67$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked No69c473.2$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa8…fc2dbacked No43c463.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.97650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c439.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.342560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes54c416.02$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes60c415.39$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes74c405.88$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43bf…5790backed Yes5c392.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No26c392.24$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.6520418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked Yes31c374.61$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6183…3834backed Yes62c369.39$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.814032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x460b…5fcabacked No64c344.45$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+41.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5dc9…0101backed Yes29c340.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-65.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed No38c340$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No24c338.07$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.16944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+74.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No67c331.88$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.364219%8 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No42c330.48$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.396011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No47c325.25$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1735060%30 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No39c324.31$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.1925122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc815…56b0backed Yes33c303.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.54850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ce…a0a6backed Yes80c300$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked No53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed No30c280.85$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.258644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No56c272.22$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes75c270.88$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.749915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No27c258.06$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.382437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55b8…1f22backed No39c254.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No73c250$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.644353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No52c238.36$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.461020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-68.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fc3…9935backed Yes16c230.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2290…80bebacked Yes44c229.91$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe120…9eb6backed No69c228$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes61c226.34$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.852458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3212…9e3bbacked No34c226.11$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No23c222$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.945448.1%26 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa33d…47debacked Yes11c217.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No32c210.66$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.714037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes32c206.38$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.642240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7c…920ebacked No53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No49c199.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9911850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes65c196.72$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.871040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No51c190.44$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.773145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No22c179.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.441540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed No68c179$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.113100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+251.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06fd…eec4backed No59c174.06$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3472…d4f2backed No76c171.95$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.88666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c53…1977backed No58c171.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+484.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.