TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa93a…0f5c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: La Liga, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 55 out of 100; worst Champions League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2025, EDT1711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-81.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Champions League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappé be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Manchester City win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$81.84
Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,617Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,616.94
Will Inter Miami CF win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$350.44
Will Atlético Madrid win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$936Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$935.81
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,581Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+71.8%+$1,135.5
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$102
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.21
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$301
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$303.15
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$219
Will Manchester City advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Inter Milan advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.19
Will Sporting CP beat RB Leipzig?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20.25
Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$204
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.27
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.23
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$317.18
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutalist"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$189.32
Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Brutalist"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$314.17
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$68
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "A Complete Unknown"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$10.32
Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$27.55
Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$78.08
Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+100%+$210.47
Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$118.7
Will Adrien Brody win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+58.7%+$59.2
Will Zoe Saldaña win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+56.3%+$57.6
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$327.97
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+53.6%+$229.69
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.1%+$21.67
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$401Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+52.2%+$209.48
Will Elon apologize to Trump before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$72
Will every president attend Trump’s inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+244.8%+$70.99
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST80%0 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+119%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$5,156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+258.1%+$13,307.91
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,310Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+198.9%+$2,605.6
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$831.78
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$708
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$519.92
Will Atalanta win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+154.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$417.06
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$214.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$198
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.