TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,454 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes60c5,392$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.4314330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No47c5,143$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.295038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No2c4,023$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.94780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc281…db19backed No31c2,379$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6a…3134backed Yes36c2,323$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.011050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No17c2,322$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.329037.8%34 W · 56 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed Yes52c2,119$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.971723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-63.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf71e…4c70backed Yes69c2,062$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ceb…0400backed No43c1,866$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes45c1,677$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.8616744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes72c1,300$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36425337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64010233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5971…bec3backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes40c903.27$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.653030%9 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes61c880.95$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.36837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…e414backed Yes56c814.73$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.12245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4403…7c46backed Yes63c705.33$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.551323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-65.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed Yes52c656.16$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Yes47c610.69$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.691136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes48c572.94$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2972445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c516.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.371,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No48c474.24$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.318048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No56c465.45$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.3557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes25c439.31$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.498921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85db…ef21backed Yes61c377$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.03837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked No65c338.39$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.952941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes57c322.29$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.791330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes62c295.66$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.231850%9 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes57c255.8$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.771560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…06b7backed Yes61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88dd…5767backed No41c244$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.224045%18 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b7…bde1backed Yes60c218.63$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964650%23 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No6c190.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.771256.4%8 W · 117 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No56c176.18$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.11741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9345…57fdbacked Yes58c172.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes36c169.89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bef…5377backed Yes71c164.49$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+82%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f0…8e2ebacked Yes60c148.81$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-72.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed Yes56c133.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.93825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0650…12dfbacked Yes57c119.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.541323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-61.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aad…ef81backed Yes61c114.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4c18…03b5backed Yes53c112$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6b…8655backed Yes45c110.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf7b…fe16backed Yes60c108.82$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb057…f818backed Yes45c108$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011d…17e3backed No47c106.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes38c106.68$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.145518.2%10 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Yes36c103.22$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.063129%9 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+81.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7892…1ea2backed Yes80c99.27$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ac…b3afbacked Yes45c97.78$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf0…0a7bbacked No58c97.78$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a47…7177backed Yes47c96.35$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.121540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7f…3480backed Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054a…5f04backed Yes62c78.44$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Yes36c76.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Yes57c76$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.68966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes44c72.02$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.332725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5579…72acbacked Yes56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…115bbacked No46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes58c68.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.658737.9%33 W · 54 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b4…f1e7backed Yes37c67.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x034f…921ebacked No65c67.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0f…3705backed Yes61c54.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f5…47a8backed No44c54.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2686…7a67backed Yes58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f5…4601backed Yes59c51.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes36c51.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5313118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed56…c62dbacked Yes61c50.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.88475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb6…ad83backed No63c50.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a41…199bbacked Yes39c50.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x761b…e8f7backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa137…564bbacked Yes41c49.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes59c48.08$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.536755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa75e…f537backed Yes74c47.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.423921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…c428backed Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.712860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes54c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11560%9 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe58d…5a23backed Yes60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fc…7c00backed Yes76c33.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebcf…533fbacked Yes39c32.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6786…8659backed No62c32.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x071a…df8ebacked Yes62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Yes59c32.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ca…f918backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…03bcbacked Yes54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9078…151bbacked Yes40c26.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa145…06d2backed Yes75c26.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf419…3ce7backed Yes60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e0…2150backed Yes54c22.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02d…208ebacked Yes50c20.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cc…9d81backed Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.