World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa237df405308afa19050e92bda1da072628ce58cde69efa39b1c1c049029013e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 32c | 2,857$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.33 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…7e05backed Yes | 69c | 2,647$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,270$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 37c | 1,672$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1036backed Yes | 49c | 1,633$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,598$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.03 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 25c | 1,220$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 53c | 1,208$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.77 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…93a2backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes | 45c | 596.81$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 588.39$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.98 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…db19backed No | 78c | 513.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…5614backed No | 77c | 436.24$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 12c | 427.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…ef21backed Yes | 25c | 377.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 328.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…7c46backed Yes | 42c | 327.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88dd…5767backed Yes | 28c | 295$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…17e3backed Yes | 33c | 252.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…3167backed Yes | 47c | 218.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 54c | 196.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…c791backed No | 59c | 175.26$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 48c | 167.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…3134backed No | 44c | 163.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7064backed Yes | 38c | 160.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 33c | 150.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 64c | 147$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…02a1backed No | 73c | 144.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 17c | 139.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 48c | 103.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a47…7177backed Yes | 40c | 100.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 56c | 100.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 69c | 100.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ef44backed Yes | 56c | 89.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…7082backed Yes | 43c | 86.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd741…a353backed No | 67c | 85.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…bfd4backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3967…3ebfbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…729bbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 51c | 59.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -65%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…2390backed Yes | 51c | 58.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…4954backed Yes | 53c | 56.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…4601backed Yes | 36c | 55.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…e809backed Yes | 53c | 50.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…1ea2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…8655backed Yes | 46c | 47.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22bc…7b2fbacked No | 50c | 46.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…313fbacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…c428backed Yes | 42c | 43.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…8b84backed Yes | 54c | 43.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc659…a2adbacked Yes | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 47c | 42.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…0adebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba3…22fabacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…50dcbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…8949backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 38c | 28.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Yes | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…151bbacked Yes | 53c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…3452backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…e85fbacked No | 50c | 22.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd3…263fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…ccaebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66eb…ed85backed Yes | 52c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf40…31ecbacked No | 57c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…55dcbacked Yes | 58c | 18.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Centre Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.