World Politics · resolved market
Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ec78f35ece68b102ba1f2a8546cacdd690af44d9c71f7cfcd04ad27f89025f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 14c | 14,890$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.66 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…5614backed Yes | 16c | 5,627$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.61 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…93a2backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 9c | 4,806$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.13 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…ccaebacked Yes | 9c | 3,619$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 8c | 2,673$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.57 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…db19backed Yes | 13c | 2,641$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 8c | 2,608$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 17c | 2,514$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.41 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 9c | 2,232$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2daf…c1d4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…58c2backed Yes | 30c | 1,669$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 79c | 1,187$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.7 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…17e3backed Yes | 15c | 843.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 29c | 686.9$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 13c | 611.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…0400backed Yes | 16c | 592.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb5…b365backed Yes | 12c | 580$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…c3aabacked Yes | 10c | 430.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 4c | 429.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…8712backed Yes | 8c | 374.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 66c | 344.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 73c | 319.4$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…2150backed Yes | 13c | 287.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…6f69backed Yes | 37c | 251.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 9c | 243.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…7acfbacked Yes | 13c | 236.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 10c | 203.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf717…44a5backed Yes | 21c | 196.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8800…7962backed Yes | 9c | 152.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf40…31ecbacked Yes | 18c | 141.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933d…6da8backed Yes | 24c | 126.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 15c | 100.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…cf5abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…1ea2backed Yes | 17c | 67.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…956fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Centre Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.