Will Kylian Mbappé be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedce9b78391063d59e6be047dae6ac688241c5d4f235b49dbe49a61c3c1d9b6a

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 9, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,722 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	3,842$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d18…b702backed Yes	19c	2,680$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	3c	1,511$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.36	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…2555backed Yes	4c	1,173$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.97	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb22…4f04backed Yes	22c	931.82$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes	14c	915.69$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.65	123	33.3%41 W · 82 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes	3c	814.71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes	6c	758.19$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.67	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	37cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe497…5403backed Yes	9c	744.27$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes	3c	610.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	183	34.4%63 W · 120 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd262…e435backed Yes	3c	609.47$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd386…1887backed Yes	3c	588.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb59…48a1backed Yes	4c	375.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No	79c	342.07$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.1	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce9…6d3abacked Yes	4c	340.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c5…8e24backed Yes	18c	340.28$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+583.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa598…24d1backed Yes	4c	328.52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	79c	301.84$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.55	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0f01…c8a8backed Yes	17c	268.63$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked No	78c	211.34$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.25	119	50.4%60 W · 59 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No	76c	207.93$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.22	94	42.6%40 W · 54 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3aae…b5a0backed Yes	18c	200$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes	18c	150.26$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2bc…a7ecbacked Yes	27c	146.86$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d3…1895backed Yes	22c	136.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+50.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…673abacked Yes	23c	132.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	57cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3502…ae31backed Yes	22c	113.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6281…53afbacked Yes	22c	113.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd30d…a159backed Yes	18c	113.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7a…35ecbacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	28cpaid	-81.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a8…ae41backed Yes	15c	96.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82c1…0217backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	20c	90$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	187	7%13 W · 174 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	76c	83.33$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	130	48.5%63 W · 67 L	+11.7wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x05e2…5aa2backed Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes	26c	77.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	146	55.5%81 W · 65 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked No	79c	63.58$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.35	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7512…c722backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a6…f547backed Yes	21c	57.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb825…7aa8backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No	78c	23.51$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.17	91	60.4%55 W · 36 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Kylian Mbappé be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event