Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd79be2489379a4436c797575f76834a00a97c94539ddab9253480e53bc043d39

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8725…eb10backed No	78c	2,222$1,725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.89	202	41.6%84 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes	17c	1,764$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.78	105	43.8%46 W · 59 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	70	68.6%48 W · 22 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	78c	684.7$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.76	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d18…b702backed Yes	34c	680.5$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	25c	622.26$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.51	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes	18c	577.24$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	101	49.5%50 W · 51 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4223…ecf5backed Yes	19c	526.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes	15c	518.93$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.02	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	37cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	220	54.1%119 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes	25c	444.94$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.58	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	62c	379.39$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.17	130	48.5%63 W · 67 L	+11.7wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes	17c	272.17$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	16c	249.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.71	187	7%13 W · 174 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes	10c	240$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	22c	199.98$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcfb…d312backed Yes	16c	160$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa060…9719backed Yes	22c	136.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.16	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No	79c	128.26$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.04	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-20%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adf…b6b1backed Yes	18c	116$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes	17c	115.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c6b…b2d5backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.26per pick	17cpaid	+120.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd386…1887backed Yes	19c	107.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x132e…427cbacked Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	27cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ea6…6d01backed Yes	17c	92.65$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe51a…3a53backed Yes	18c	83.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	15c	81.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	119	16.8%20 W · 99 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	24c	60.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	163	27%44 W · 119 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes	22c	49.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+4.6wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes	32c	39.61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No	76c	36.63$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.79	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event