Champions League · resolved market
Will Sporting CP beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7086b53afedbd1a64392ac997c8b81ae65eb7f244c61ffc66b3fa881e8c9e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6741…ce15backed Yes | 0c | 5,606$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 47c | 1,062$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 76c | 1,025$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.32 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 73c | 950.37$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.26 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 56c | 772.21$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.04 | 187 | 54.5%102 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 60c | 675.21$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.9 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Yes | 12c | 668.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 57c | 663.08$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.15 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…0572backed Yes | 45c | 442.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…3ec0backed Yes | 45c | 418.55$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 30c | 374.8$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 44c | 255$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 59c | 253.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…a79abacked Yes | 6c | 243.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 56c | 222.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…0cbfbacked Yes | 7c | 206.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…f104backed Yes | 46c | 204.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 55c | 199.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 59c | 188.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 71c | 168.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 41c | 162.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…98d2backed Yes | 14c | 151.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 15c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7e…35cabacked Yes | 12c | 131.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…0735backed No | 72c | 129.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d5…8125backed Yes | 16c | 122.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…2162backed Yes | 43c | 116.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…d298backed No | 61c | 106.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 44c | 102.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 43c | 99.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d0a8backed Yes | 18c | 92.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 43c | 86.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4daf…4cb6backed Yes | 13c | 82.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 22c | 74.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 55c | 73.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2f…af1ebacked Yes | 45c | 66.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…bf6bbacked Yes | 41c | 43.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…3cfebacked Yes | 41c | 39.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…cb08backed Yes | 41c | 37.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf428…7a5ebacked No | 56c | 35.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 42c | 34.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 37c | 33.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e30…5084backed No | 56c | 33.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2d…f713backed Yes | 44c | 32.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0648…2d1abacked No | 56c | 32.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf6…6af7backed No | 59c | 30.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…3043backed Yes | 44c | 29.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…4955backed No | 59c | 26.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…15e0backed Yes | 41c | 26.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…49bfbacked No | 59c | 25.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…f42fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…d7aabacked No | 59c | 21.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…52f7backed No | 59c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat Sporting CP?Yes won
- Will the match between RB Leipzig and Sporting CP end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.