Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb73f7a37d43b647542d111f2c6c0199e7c76bbde0ea69d6215724d6c087a2486
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 7c | 12,977$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 8c | 12,365$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.75 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 8c | 10,567$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.85 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 13c | 9,488$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.53 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 10c | 9,421$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.5 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 9c | 5,773$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.47 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.14 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,754$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 10c | 2,419$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.68 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 10c | 2,336$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.31 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d5…8d1abacked Yes | 15c | 2,043$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562d…db7dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,670$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,624$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,557$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 8c | 1,419$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 10c | 1,380$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.96 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 7c | 1,133$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 9c | 1,132$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,107$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 1,104$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,096$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 2c | 1,073$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…0108backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 11c | 999.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 6c | 970.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 4c | 805.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 20c | 799.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 6c | 782.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 8c | 763.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…f16dbacked Yes | 4c | 728$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 4c | 685$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 9c | 683.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 22c | 638.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 630.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 9c | 600$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 590.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 10c | 549.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 7c | 535.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 5c | 471.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 5c | 457.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 9c | 450$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 5c | 369.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 11c | 332.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 14c | 318.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 4c | 316.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…9c2abacked Yes | 11c | 310.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 3c | 301.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 9c | 281.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 280$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f49cbacked Yes | 10c | 271.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a23…1b4cbacked Yes | 13c | 267$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 13c | 220$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 10c | 202.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 11c | 195.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…7ed3backed Yes | 18c | 193.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 14c | 191.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 9c | 187.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 12c | 187.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…217fbacked Yes | 13c | 186.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…26dfbacked Yes | 8c | 185.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 16c | 180.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…7c0abacked Yes | 22c | 176.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 11c | 172.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c0…4328backed Yes | 8c | 153.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…b83cbacked Yes | 13c | 152.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 9c | 141.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 11c | 133.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…f21fbacked Yes | 15c | 125.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 13c | 120.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 19c | 119.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…6461backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…810cbacked Yes | 11c | 113.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…0e21backed Yes | 21c | 97.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…5621backed Yes | 21c | 88.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…e392backed Yes | 13c | 80.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8515…8490backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…eb80backed Yes | 15c | 72.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7e…54ddbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 18c | 65.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…ae23backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3956…50cebacked No | 78c | 63.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda38…c054backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…96cfbacked No | 80c | 37.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…bc14backed No | 79c | 33.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…ea27backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.