Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577564a04dfac32e245b7768a3cc38a8b892837dde1d15ce608afa8da0d7e876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 11c | 20,077$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.98 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 0c | 10,245$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,745$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.97 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 6,057$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 5,592$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 1c | 5,058$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 10c | 3,513$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.16 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 22c | 3,000$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.53 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 2c | 2,928$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 6c | 2,697$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…c5e0backed Yes | 19c | 2,271$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 2c | 1,862$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 18c | 1,822$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.82 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…67d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,595$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 18c | 1,396$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…4b95backed Yes | 1c | 1,320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,007$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…71e6backed Yes | 8c | 959.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 899.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 15c | 842.51$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…2eacbacked Yes | 1c | 737.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 2c | 631.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 6c | 617.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked Yes | 21c | 570.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…2cffbacked Yes | 22c | 481.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked No | 79c | 438.19$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 3c | 404.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…e5a0backed Yes | 4c | 380.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef8…1116backed Yes | 3c | 333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes | 22c | 298.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5b…6848backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 19c | 223.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…28a3backed Yes | 5c | 217.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 7c | 174.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 150.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f9…b56cbacked Yes | 8c | 146.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 10c | 145.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02c…9f3ebacked Yes | 22c | 122.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…28adbacked Yes | 10c | 119.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 15c | 118.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…e53abacked Yes | 12c | 109.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…2a79backed Yes | 20c | 107.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 13c | 96.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…6239backed Yes | 13c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…fd4abacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…f277backed Yes | 17c | 60.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ce…94aabacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a5dcbacked Yes | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…77c9backed No | 80c | 21.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…08a9backed No | 80c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.