Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e9f190b7176dbc104ad28ccaec449d762c45b921c180f09cf3febe13d9451a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $282,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 6c | 13,883$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 23c | 13,860$3,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,715.65 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…2629backed No | 4c | 9,921$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 12c | 6,600$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,809.44 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 64c | 6,332$4,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.87 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…2841backed Yes | 56c | 4,899$2,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 34c | 4,203$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,765.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…4ca3backed No | 6c | 3,498$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 18c | 3,278$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +517.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 37c | 3,100$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.9 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 16c | 3,044$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,559.91 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 18c | 2,624$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,380$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.04 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 14c | 2,115$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.84 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 5c | 2,067$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,066$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.21 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,058$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.33 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 17c | 2,019$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.89 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,984$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.04 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…dc01backed Yes | 17c | 1,856$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +404.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,748$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.89 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bf…14cfbacked No | 3c | 1,665$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 16c | 1,628$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.4 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 28c | 1,410$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.32 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850d…5d3cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,360$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…71e6backed Yes | 7c | 1,345$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 22c | 1,326$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.14 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d8…8b79backed Yes | 40c | 1,244$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 32c | 1,240$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 20c | 1,211$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.07 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982f…bbdebacked Yes | 33c | 1,209$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04c…b6ccbacked No | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 15c | 1,154$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,142$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.51 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,112$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.99 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…2a80backed Yes | 25c | 1,095$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,081$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed No | 80c | 967.69$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…809abacked Yes | 31c | 802.77$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 10c | 759.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 20c | 756.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 712.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.91 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 9c | 697.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.71 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e87…4cf9backed Yes | 20c | 620.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 12c | 617.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.65 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 3c | 600.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 16c | 595.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.77 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56a…b5e7backed Yes | 33c | 588$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 5c | 569.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.37 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 41c | 550$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 56c | 539.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.06 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 524.22$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.78 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 16c | 516.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.11 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9b…2954backed Yes | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 58c | 491.14$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.14 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 29c | 486.95$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.6 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 36c | 483.73$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.56 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 23c | 472.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.05 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 47c | 429.48$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.59 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…bbd7backed No | 66c | 403.45$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 19c | 400$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.87 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…1102backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 397.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.36 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 28c | 397.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 15c | 392.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.03 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 24c | 331.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.46 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 77c | 300$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 26c | 297.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.95 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…d022backed Yes | 78c | 293.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 23c | 282.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f49cbacked Yes | 30c | 281.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 25c | 272.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 267.1$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.31 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 46c | 266.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…53cebacked Yes | 67c | 259.01$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 27c | 255.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…4a10backed Yes | 13c | 254.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 66c | 252.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…155ebacked Yes | 13c | 244.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 29c | 231.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.01 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…f16dbacked Yes | 35c | 230.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…6422backed Yes | 53c | 214.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…e80ebacked Yes | 75c | 210.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 16c | 210.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.66 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Yes | 27c | 205.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…128fbacked Yes | 35c | 200.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 20c | 200.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab6…abc2backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…98a3backed Yes | 33c | 199.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 12c | 199.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.