Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b713c6719057eea6bcd535c6093d3f67c357d392ddf8a6cece7ef10e1a71142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 20,090$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 6c | 14,014$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.14 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…6c3dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,342$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,231$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.31 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 7,311$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.6 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 6,211$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 5c | 4,721$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.05 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,940$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 2c | 2,700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,468$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.46 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 8c | 2,416$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 16c | 2,227$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.21 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 29c | 1,743$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,472$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.59 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 10c | 1,291$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 5c | 1,155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,123$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 12c | 1,006$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 23c | 954.98$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes | 14c | 920$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…3068backed Yes | 15c | 799.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 2c | 740.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 12c | 731.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 10c | 594.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…9e3dbacked Yes | 20c | 561.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 533.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 5c | 516.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 450$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 15c | 417.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 17c | 396.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 21c | 380.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…9ec4backed Yes | 29c | 350.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…217fbacked Yes | 20c | 315.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 10c | 240.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 18c | 213.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed Yes | 10c | 204.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 21c | 195.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 9c | 191.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked Yes | 11c | 186.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 16c | 182.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 28c | 178.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a5dcbacked Yes | 11c | 177.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…5621backed Yes | 20c | 177.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 7c | 165.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 17c | 163.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…ff76backed Yes | 29c | 145.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…4a10backed Yes | 18c | 138.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 15c | 116.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…6461backed Yes | 20c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 106.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 20c | 101.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…7ed3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…d038backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 17c | 92.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 22c | 90.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 23c | 75.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…79debacked Yes | 20c | 75.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…f21fbacked Yes | 20c | 74.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 33c | 71.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 70.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…d083backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…4534backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…36dbbacked Yes | 26c | 61.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 16c | 61.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…3ec5backed Yes | 23c | 59.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…5fe3backed No | 75c | 57.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9beb…302dbacked Yes | 21c | 53.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb304…8f76backed No | 75c | 53.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…71b6backed No | 77c | 51.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1135…964fbacked Yes | 22c | 50.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 28c | 44.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa624…3ebbbacked No | 74c | 43.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfa…c5e3backed No | 74c | 42.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…8013backed Yes | 25c | 41.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…d16dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd56…c1e0backed No | 74c | 38.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…84c7backed No | 78c | 34.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…5b1fbacked No | 79c | 28.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…e732backed No | 75c | 27.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…02cabacked No | 79c | 24.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2b…62d2backed No | 74c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…9e4cbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.