Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d03d7918f9b7cc853b1670fb7862bb28f786f71ebaf5cf85268f006e3963d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 11c | 15,739$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.37 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 13,554$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.31 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 3c | 8,103$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.65 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 6,723$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 8c | 6,493$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.56 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…77b7backed Yes | 2c | 6,437$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,273$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 8c | 6,085$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 11c | 5,791$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.06 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…3422backed Yes | 0c | 5,501$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 6c | 4,945$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.23 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,466$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,189$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.44 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,001$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483e…2d6bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,669$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 77c | 2,456$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…4ca3backed Yes | 9c | 2,327$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 9c | 2,245$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.66 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,142$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 11c | 2,126$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.35 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,956$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,835$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.2 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982f…bbdebacked Yes | 24c | 1,800$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked Yes | 5c | 1,677$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…71e6backed Yes | 6c | 1,668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd853…fb3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,528$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 12c | 1,501$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…155ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,343$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,325$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 16c | 1,303$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,275$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 32c | 1,266$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 7c | 1,230$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,090$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 905.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 14c | 809.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562d…db7dbacked Yes | 28c | 774.37$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 3c | 725.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 702.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 18c | 689.46$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 7c | 660.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 8c | 628.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 8c | 618.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 6c | 616.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 22c | 578.3$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 9c | 565.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed Yes | 22c | 508.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9b…2954backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…c5f5backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 14c | 361$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bd72backed Yes | 4c | 335.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 7c | 320$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 7c | 315$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 4c | 284.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…3019backed Yes | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 11c | 269.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a23…1b4cbacked Yes | 7c | 262$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 20c | 254.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…ba0bbacked Yes | 8c | 238.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 15c | 226.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 225.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 8c | 218$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…c5e0backed Yes | 11c | 202.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…437dbacked Yes | 8c | 193.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11cc…62febacked Yes | 9c | 167.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…791cbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 13c | 153.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…8fc6backed Yes | 13c | 148.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 139.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…9ec4backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 14c | 130.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 12c | 129.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 16c | 125.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 18c | 124.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c54…e99cbacked Yes | 29c | 121.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…6239backed Yes | 12c | 121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 13c | 112.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…78f9backed Yes | 13c | 107.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Yes | 14c | 104.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…99f0backed Yes | 14c | 104.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…7ed3backed Yes | 20c | 101.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…7210backed No | 74c | 98.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…26dfbacked Yes | 15c | 97.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e9…cefcbacked No | 76c | 97.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 13c | 96.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5e…5f62backed Yes | 27c | 92.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 14c | 87.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…eae2backed Yes | 30c | 82.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.