Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7161d892cb07fd85fbe66b9a1a63cfb299a4ffda6ecafc6969d81735c3ee12ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 10c | 16,067$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.29 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,390$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.44 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 6,087$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 12c | 3,832$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.07 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 15c | 3,581$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 2,558$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 3c | 1,835$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 6c | 1,725$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 12c | 1,501$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…71e6backed Yes | 14c | 1,292$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,048$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…2eacbacked Yes | 12c | 812.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5b…6848backed Yes | 5c | 622.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 11c | 598.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 2c | 589.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 12c | 573.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 2c | 573.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 9c | 404.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…c5f5backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 13c | 388.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 11c | 301.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 4c | 299.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 5c | 298.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 7c | 262.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…9ec4backed Yes | 6c | 246.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 9c | 224.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01aa…580ebacked Yes | 15c | 199.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef3…cba8backed Yes | 11c | 187.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 10c | 131.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…7ed3backed Yes | 11c | 111.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ce…94aabacked Yes | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.