Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab19e050c070553c6084923c67fee2a6550575be4217772c3b3cf25248b4296e

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 18, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $159,189
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $115,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,189 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	8c	11,789$970 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$970.01	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d92…4b39backed Yes	7c	7,256$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.75	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes	5c	4,273$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.19	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed Yes	7c	4,000$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.03	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb2a…a436backed Yes	9c	3,400$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.84	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No	79c	3,093$2,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.99	73	28.8%21 W · 52 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x358d…e216backed Yes	19c	2,504$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.6	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76eb…525abacked Yes	15c	2,461$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.32	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	18c	2,421$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.81	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	3c	2,158$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.55	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bef…5377backed Yes	10c	2,012$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.98	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1166…94acbacked Yes	28c	1,962$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.79	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes	29c	1,781$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes	6c	1,670$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.2	162	7.4%12 W · 150 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes	12c	1,660$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.52	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes	20c	1,277$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.59	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+50.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed No	79c	1,248$987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.31	80	13.8%11 W · 69 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+52%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c1…9e3dbacked Yes	24c	1,208$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	1,001$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8196…0954backed Yes	5c	981.16$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.23	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	962.82$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.57	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	6c	950$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.23	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No	74c	852.3$635 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.34	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+83.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38d8…3670backed Yes	25c	816.49$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.16	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes	28c	750.86$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed Yes	9c	750$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	27c	733.6$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.81	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	28c	716.74$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.06	230	3.9%9 W · 221 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1984…241ebacked Yes	8c	615$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe4…1996backed Yes	5c	588.4$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes	17c	561.63$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.51	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes	15c	530.32$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	188	10.1%19 W · 169 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3687…b1d6backed Yes	5c	510$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	50	10%5 W · 45 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+137.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1802…a3afbacked Yes	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed Yes	8c	500$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c4…d01bbacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x138d…24febacked Yes	13c	499.08$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.23	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…6842backed Yes	8c	489.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	13cpaid	-94.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a26…3050backed Yes	33c	454.24$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes	17c	427.82$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.8	104	7.7%8 W · 96 L	-8.4wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes	7c	415.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.02	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd187…2ce1backed Yes	8c	392$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x745c…22bcbacked Yes	17c	377.59$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes	20c	374.8$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.74	83	25.3%21 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked No	68c	365.67$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.02	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes	14c	364.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9db8…126fbacked Yes	17c	363.12$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.33	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+78.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes	14c	353.28$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.25	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes	10c	349.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes	20c	326.61$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.14	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f8…f07ebacked Yes	35c	310.17$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed No	77c	308.38$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.1	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	56cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc26…b83cbacked Yes	29c	279.93$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7939…bcd4backed Yes	33c	268.9$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.82	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba5b…6848backed Yes	30c	267$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes	6c	259.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked No	67c	250$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.5	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db0…edb0backed No	78c	201.51$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.51	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.8	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xded2…abc3backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59d0…4464backed Yes	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes	26c	186.46$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.24	102	24.5%25 W · 77 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-33%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71f7…217fbacked Yes	18c	185.19$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	34cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd8…a2e6backed No	66c	184.56$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.11	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+50.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ce…a956backed Yes	35c	182.63$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…f310backed Yes	29c	181.62$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.45	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbde…6403backed Yes	38c	176.58$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd1…f909backed No	66c	170.11$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.84	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae5…155ebacked Yes	13c	162.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+75.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0575…15d6backed No	66c	154.08$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.89	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes	28c	153.97$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x29c2…28ecbacked No	67c	152.43$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3726backed Yes	24c	148.77$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0cd…6d22backed Yes	15c	141.24$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42d4…62f0backed No	74c	139.35$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.42	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9867…7c0abacked Yes	29c	139.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5005…a4e6backed Yes	22c	138.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…bd2abacked Yes	32c	127.69$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…42a4backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	33cpaid	-74%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x328d…d16dbacked Yes	11c	121$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Yes	11c	120$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	54	7.4%4 W · 50 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a2…5b23backed Yes	29c	104.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Yes	17c	103.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes	14c	100.43$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x766e…c49cbacked Yes	37c	100.26$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd026…8156backed Yes	20c	100.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c7…e53abacked Yes	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.51	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9b…7fe0backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5db1…7ed3backed Yes	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1c…f530backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+119.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8053…810cbacked Yes	17c	99.95$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3510…2238backed Yes	13c	95.7$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	29cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cb…7838backed Yes	11c	93.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x641a…6884backed Yes	22c	89.87$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x884a…5621backed Yes	13c	89.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+129.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d10…7f12backed Yes	28c	89.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4903…0a6bbacked Yes	13c	85.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2c9f…f4c8backed Yes	26c	79.44$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?this page
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?No won
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?No won
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?No won
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?No won
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?Yes won
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?No won
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?No won
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event