Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8c0cae6ef4fdf6df1747e9fb803e0ec0b6899925baffab85b6e6b2bdec8b7fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 8c | 12,772$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.66 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 7,268$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 5c | 6,870$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.58 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 15c | 6,067$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.28 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 4,372$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.05 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 7c | 3,305$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.26 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 2,615$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,067$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.41 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 16c | 1,552$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x705a…3df0backed Yes | 8c | 1,352$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,143$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,053$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 11c | 1,011$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 18c | 933.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…0a61backed Yes | 10c | 883.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 6c | 882.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 8c | 881.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes | 13c | 879.04$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…3068backed Yes | 4c | 841.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 17c | 835.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…bbd7backed Yes | 25c | 763.95$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 18c | 700.65$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 690$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 21c | 657.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 16c | 648.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 24c | 647.29$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.44 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 4c | 645.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 17c | 589.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 27c | 585$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 14c | 571.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 15c | 549.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…99f0backed Yes | 6c | 547.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked Yes | 10c | 534.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 13c | 508.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…9ec4backed Yes | 21c | 474.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 7c | 448.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 10c | 447.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 20c | 436.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 17c | 413.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…4d83backed Yes | 9c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 9c | 387.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 18c | 375.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 372.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 17c | 368.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 21c | 362.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 13c | 359.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 30c | 350$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked Yes | 31c | 318.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 24c | 309.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 298.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 20c | 282.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…22bcbacked Yes | 20c | 257.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 17c | 257.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes | 11c | 253.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 226.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 12c | 206.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb179…d584backed Yes | 10c | 199.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…217fbacked Yes | 19c | 184.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a5dcbacked Yes | 13c | 183.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 14c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 20c | 178.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 17c | 174.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…7c0abacked Yes | 24c | 169.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 10c | 157.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…0e21backed Yes | 29c | 151.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 20c | 147.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…6d22backed Yes | 23c | 143.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 10c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 7c | 134.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 9c | 132$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…7fb8backed Yes | 16c | 128.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…6461backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…d16dbacked Yes | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…d038backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…7ed3backed Yes | 22c | 99.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…b83cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…d31fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…810cbacked No | 80c | 90.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 13c | 85.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 24c | 84.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 18c | 84.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…cfa8backed Yes | 24c | 83.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 19c | 81.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…d083backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…4534backed Yes | 20c | 67.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19b…478dbacked Yes | 19c | 64.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…e72dbacked Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…91b2backed Yes | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…821fbacked No | 70c | 31.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…26dfbacked No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…d195backed No | 76c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…7ea7backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.