Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c9ee9c63efe931d83a62ed05907eadcb56170e46579f7979537fdfea20aa04c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 8c | 13,575$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.59 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 14c | 9,166$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.76 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 11c | 8,536$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.88 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…0108backed Yes | 19c | 7,500$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 69c | 6,798$4,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,709.88 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 43c | 5,425$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…3422backed Yes | 0c | 5,039$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 65c | 4,605$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 35c | 4,430$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.35 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…f747backed Yes | 33c | 4,400$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…b528backed No | 67c | 4,400$2,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 3,046$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 50c | 3,035$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.28 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 26c | 2,802$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.65 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed Yes | 33c | 2,424$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 61c | 2,166$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.75 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,109$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.49 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 11c | 2,040$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…c5e0backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56a…b5e7backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,969$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.14 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed No | 71c | 1,965$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 50c | 1,952$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.2 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 20c | 1,848$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.81 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 24c | 1,778$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.44 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9134…3e25backed Yes | 13c | 1,762$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 18c | 1,666$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +517.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 61c | 1,580$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…2629backed Yes | 16c | 1,568$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,487$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,486$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 19c | 1,479$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.11 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 11c | 1,441$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 12c | 1,421$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…0048backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 10c | 1,377$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,350$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.73 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 18c | 1,332$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,318$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 52c | 1,307$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 20c | 1,195$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.68 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,116$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 24c | 1,080$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.97 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 994.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e87…4cf9backed Yes | 79c | 962.12$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 25c | 949.24$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…71e6backed Yes | 11c | 905.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 31c | 899.62$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 65c | 878.28$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.39 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f49cbacked Yes | 31c | 867.4$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 14c | 864$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 15c | 854.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 13c | 803.25$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 32c | 750$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.5 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 18c | 726.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 14c | 723.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked No | 58c | 699.99$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…e80ebacked Yes | 41c | 664.07$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 656.02$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 22c | 650.91$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 11c | 640$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562d…db7dbacked Yes | 57c | 614.44$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 7c | 613.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d8…8b79backed Yes | 49c | 609.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 26c | 584.25$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.83 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…f770backed Yes | 42c | 579.23$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 13c | 575.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 11c | 575$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 48c | 561.81$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 52c | 543.63$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.45 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 9c | 532.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 9c | 531.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 26c | 526.43$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850d…5d3cbacked Yes | 23c | 496.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 477.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 50c | 476.4$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.88 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…0581backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed Yes | 11c | 450.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 44c | 449.36$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.54 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e28…1b4bbacked No | 67c | 447.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 26c | 446.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed No | 22c | 440.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.29 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…4534backed Yes | 6c | 432.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 18c | 421.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…f16dbacked Yes | 34c | 407.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 80c | 393.67$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 52c | 382.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed Yes | 54c | 368.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 59c | 362.88$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.07 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes | 73c | 359.02$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…99f0backed Yes | 10c | 354.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab6…abc2backed Yes | 75c | 344.37$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 43c | 326.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.