TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9db0…edb0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
115
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 12, 2025, EDT3215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$76
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$72.82
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$173.13
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$30.19
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$24.2
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+354.5%+$39
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$166
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+400%+$40
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25.5
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$35
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Suns vs. Spursbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Magic vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Hornets vs. Lakersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+614.3%+$430
Clippers vs. Jazzbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+77.9%+$22.34
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+115.5%+$53.6
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Heat vs. Lakersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+185.7%+$65
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2024 NBA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+284.6%+$74
Nuggets vs. Kingsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+787.1%+$97.6
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$19.95
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$22.45
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+63.9%+$15.6
Suns vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$28.84
Wizards vs. Cavaliersbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$28.8
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+300%+$75
Mavericks vs. Thunderbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$14
Magic vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+40.8%+$29
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$54
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$115
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+354.5%+$46.8
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+33.5%+$6.7
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Trump claims largest inauguration crowd ever?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will Donald Trump issue 40 or more executive orders in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$536.1
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+150%+$60
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+54.8%+$88.5
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$88.8
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+262.8%+$296.43
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+170.3%+$37.8
Will there be a US Government shutdown? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$33.64
Will the first House vote on CR funding bill pass?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+170.3%+$18.9
All 23 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST70%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Flamesbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+160.1%+$35.53
Flyers vs. Wildbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,308.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+1,308.7%+$287.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye West release an album before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST+26.6%+$42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office?backed Sonic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+25%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2025 January hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$12.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.