Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6cc33956e387fb8e89c5105aadf24438bf478bcfc103361187535f2c98521fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $688,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $688,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc14c…2a42backed Yes | 0c | 121,386$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…7524backed Yes | 0c | 99,181$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb101…abbabacked Yes | 0c | 88,826$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 0c | 63,249$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 23,304$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.33 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 8c | 13,800$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.88 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 3c | 13,300$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 11,938$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.36 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 1c | 11,125$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…3f65backed Yes | 0c | 8,929$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 16c | 8,844$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 4c | 6,980$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 12c | 5,819$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.77 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…a272backed Yes | 0c | 5,507$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 1c | 5,348$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 20c | 4,530$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,534$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,675$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 2,517$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 13c | 2,344$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.69 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,210$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.22 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…76dcbacked Yes | 11c | 2,178$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,060$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.5 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes | 1c | 2,008$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 2,001$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…4cecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,997$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…934bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,985$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 12c | 1,977$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.68 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,972$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…b08ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,381$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 1,224$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.57 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 13c | 1,094$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,046$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…05c6backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6a…cdcfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…c901backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 2c | 973.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 3c | 952.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 12c | 951.13$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 13c | 924.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 4c | 910.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 18c | 785.79$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 16c | 784.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 18c | 755.06$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.91 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 2c | 694.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 15c | 659.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…617cbacked Yes | 2c | 646.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e4…54aebacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…8e5fbacked Yes | 16c | 593.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c86…7a72backed Yes | 14c | 552.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…aca6backed Yes | 4c | 520.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 505.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 13c | 498.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 16c | 491.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 15c | 435.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 12c | 429.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 12c | 330.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 17c | 234.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Yes | 13c | 229$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…74bfbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…2feabacked Yes | 16c | 137.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 15c | 132.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…a201backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 18c | 91.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 13c | 90.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 81.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…3b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +2,215.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 60c | 66.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…0e03backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 61c | 57.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.