Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Jan 10-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53cb323c4cf7a25e0cbbdbdf01b1752edc84378159fbe54cc509eb82f9720332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $508,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $508,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x554d…55cdbacked Yes | 0c | 77,924$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…0567backed Yes | 0c | 60,863$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…cb85backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…e8c1backed Yes | 0c | 45,947$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…f8d8backed Yes | 0c | 33,113$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf7…163cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,616$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 1c | 15,902$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…1ca1backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…38d5backed Yes | 0c | 11,880$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0474…0bbabacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 4c | 8,154$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 6,065$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.91 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 0c | 5,721$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 5,575$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 6c | 3,238$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…5a06backed Yes | 1c | 3,009$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 2c | 2,782$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…934bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,396$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 3c | 2,344$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 12c | 2,201$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.93 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 5c | 1,633$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,225$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c86…7a72backed Yes | 7c | 1,168$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 1,039$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,015$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 14c | 817.4$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e4…54aebacked Yes | 13c | 782.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 7c | 738.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…1a72backed Yes | 4c | 509.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 8c | 507.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 383$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7b…fe16backed Yes | 8c | 382.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…74bfbacked Yes | 9c | 364.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 7c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…d48cbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…6987backed Yes | 13c | 207.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3374…ec71backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…6b27backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 6c | 182.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 14c | 164$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 10c | 159$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…978ebacked Yes | 13c | 154.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed Yes | 10c | 154.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…2feabacked Yes | 10c | 115.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 11c | 103.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Jan 10-17?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.