Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c8f97c8fbc7bd2d196df240a644e32f1ca9147ffc8efcb25cecd28ae79a82e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $541,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $541,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c41…0a18backed Yes | 0c | 100,382$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…e8c1backed Yes | 0c | 73,230$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…f134backed Yes | 0c | 48,721$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…cb85backed Yes | 0c | 45,778$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…0567backed Yes | 0c | 38,129$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 12c | 18,486$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 0c | 11,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 1c | 10,550$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 7c | 8,749$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.35 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 7c | 3,727$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 7c | 3,298$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,077$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.51 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 9c | 2,913$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.21 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…934bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,784$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…f625backed Yes | 1c | 2,740$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,584$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.38 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 2,292$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.18 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 10c | 2,015$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 16c | 1,700$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 1,677$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31f…0290backed Yes | 14c | 1,665$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,242$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 9c | 923.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 10c | 860.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…8e5fbacked Yes | 12c | 838.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 833.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 6c | 832.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 20c | 762.82$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e4…54aebacked Yes | 17c | 577.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 3c | 572.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c86…7a72backed Yes | 14c | 572.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 530.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…0848backed Yes | 14c | 490.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…86b8backed Yes | 5c | 485$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7b…fe16backed Yes | 10c | 444.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 435$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked Yes | 12c | 408.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 376.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 367.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…fdb1backed Yes | 12c | 355$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…74bfbacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…0199backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked Yes | 15c | 196.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 11c | 185.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 11c | 153.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…d48cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…6848backed Yes | 15c | 139.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…978ebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.