Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a3eea3a157a2dc5de1479aeacb0847b90b31d42fac9af9a1eccbd2350d6eb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,313,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,205,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,313,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,065 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bdb…4a63backed Yes | 0c | 165,814$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280a…982fbacked Yes | 0c | 121,601$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…3ad3backed Yes | 0c | 43,615$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 35c | 41,235$14,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,589.1 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 48c | 27,238$13,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,160.41 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…90c0backed Yes | 29c | 23,621$6,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,927.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…9d82backed Yes | 63c | 21,141$13,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,361.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 2c | 18,330$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.87 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 42c | 16,604$7,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,048.76 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 24c | 15,702$3,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,828.21 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 7c | 14,500$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 52c | 13,770$7,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,093.75 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 31c | 13,617$4,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,198.52 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed No | 73c | 12,931$9,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,519.52 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 34c | 11,306$3,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,864.47 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed Yes | 33c | 11,000$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,649.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 27c | 10,189$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.55 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…952abacked Yes | 24c | 9,841$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 46c | 8,998$4,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,169.57 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 29c | 8,898$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 49c | 8,779$4,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,314.27 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…314ebacked No | 78c | 8,457$6,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 67c | 8,431$5,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,652.68 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 16c | 8,213$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.31 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 39c | 6,687$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.38 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 34c | 5,524$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,641.4 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 55c | 5,486$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 24c | 5,141$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.74 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…7e81backed Yes | 62c | 4,700$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,937.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 37c | 4,657$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.43 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed No | 46c | 4,477$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.66 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…4fdabacked Yes | 26c | 4,109$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 3,631$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.11 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 14c | 3,534$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.02 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 25c | 3,314$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.6 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…779bbacked Yes | 52c | 3,308$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 56c | 3,117$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 42c | 3,088$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.49 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 34c | 3,044$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 70c | 2,973$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 40c | 2,921$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.94 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 31c | 2,900$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.14 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…5bfcbacked Yes | 69c | 2,878$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 38c | 2,827$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 69c | 2,698$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.95 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…ef89backed No | 64c | 2,594$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,452$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 28c | 2,361$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.94 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 20c | 2,350$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…b61cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,277$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 27c | 2,272$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.42 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 47c | 2,255$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 35c | 2,089$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefed…1fffbacked No | 36c | 2,060$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…2cb4backed Yes | 64c | 2,060$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 74c | 2,041$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.63 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,022$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.1 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 55c | 1,952$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.62 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 46c | 1,927$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.2 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 74c | 1,908$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…c901backed Yes | 45c | 1,903$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 31c | 1,880$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.2 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 23c | 1,703$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.63 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…4888backed Yes | 33c | 1,694$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 16c | 1,654$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835d…62dcbacked Yes | 62c | 1,603$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,437$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.83 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…1751backed Yes | 18c | 1,405$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 61c | 1,399$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.67 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 44c | 1,361$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.29 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 72c | 1,355$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 29c | 1,293$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.35 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,280$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.48 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,269$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…eb06backed Yes | 48c | 1,209$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 43c | 1,200$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 46c | 1,170$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.78 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 32c | 1,115$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.79 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,105$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.95 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,093$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 25c | 1,050$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 46c | 1,044$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.22 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…5aa7backed Yes | 77c | 1,036$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 59c | 1,007$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.43 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 76c | 1,003$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 66c | 999.98$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 998.38$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.47 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…e00abacked Yes | 38c | 965.78$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.7 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 20c | 960.92$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.48 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed Yes | 68c | 943.28$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…93f7backed Yes | 14c | 892.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aac…46a0backed Yes | 56c | 885.7$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 23c | 875$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked No | 70c | 873.45$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.33 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 58c | 824.01$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 25c | 765.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.82 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…9428backed Yes | 27c | 733.07$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.