Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b552eb1e94a47649bfd3376199743ab54f6a68fc4eb512716c0102d09cd7a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $900,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $490,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $900,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc32…78e9backed Yes | 0c | 99,987$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…0e1abacked Yes | 0c | 78,604$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe143…b5fcbacked Yes | 0c | 69,901$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 12c | 51,959$6,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,184.82 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 11c | 49,740$5,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,411.94 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…f134backed Yes | 0c | 40,292$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 2c | 37,089$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 34,018$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.4 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 15c | 32,434$4,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,736.62 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554d…55cdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 7c | 18,539$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.33 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 7c | 15,595$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.95 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 15c | 14,617$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.64 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 14c | 11,153$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.74 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…cb85backed Yes | 0c | 10,950$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 5c | 9,800$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 12c | 9,298$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 5,914$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.19 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 5c | 5,756$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.88 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 13c | 5,404$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.25 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 1c | 5,357$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 14c | 5,243$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.71 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 8c | 5,143$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.37 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed Yes | 14c | 4,451$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 3,787$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.59 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 1c | 3,690$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…01adbacked Yes | 3c | 3,521$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,385$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 11c | 3,010$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.92 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 18c | 3,009$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…fd61backed Yes | 7c | 2,956$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 19c | 2,953$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.74 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,929$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.14 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 8c | 2,754$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 17c | 2,485$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.34 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 2c | 2,386$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…a854backed Yes | 14c | 2,284$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,177$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,022$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.52 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…4fdabacked Yes | 17c | 1,927$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…b7b8backed Yes | 12c | 1,917$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,906$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,900$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes | 10c | 1,859$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 15c | 1,845$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.12 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,809$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 9c | 1,741$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 17c | 1,704$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 18c | 1,700$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 1,550$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.03 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,536$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.45 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 16c | 1,535$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…c901backed Yes | 21c | 1,457$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,360$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,355$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.28 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 5c | 1,350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,292$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 18c | 1,287$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.36 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…b7ddbacked Yes | 8c | 1,279$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 18c | 1,272$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,268$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…ddccbacked Yes | 11c | 1,182$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…42adbacked Yes | 14c | 1,170$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…77b0backed Yes | 17c | 1,155$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 19c | 1,138$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 5c | 1,130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…656cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,042$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…5377backed Yes | 20c | 1,029$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…4cecbacked Yes | 4c | 976.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…5aa7backed Yes | 4c | 870.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 824$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 11c | 819.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 16c | 807.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…952abacked Yes | 19c | 799.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…0848backed Yes | 13c | 738.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…d82ebacked Yes | 11c | 708.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 14c | 688.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 16c | 681.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 672.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…e780backed Yes | 16c | 659.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…4f16backed Yes | 11c | 637.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 16c | 620.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbe…b48fbacked Yes | 17c | 595.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 10c | 585.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…8e5fbacked Yes | 16c | 577.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 17c | 574.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 21c | 571.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…3a3abacked Yes | 6c | 564.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…1148backed Yes | 18c | 559.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 10c | 550.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 11c | 550$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 14c | 550$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 8c | 545$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 17c | 541.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…f2b7backed Yes | 19c | 522.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…573fbacked Yes | 19c | 521.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 9c | 510.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.