Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8fdc63208d3948cbd71040f6b933fcaabc6712a087894becf7aaca8f463741b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $519,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc97c…f569backed Yes | 0c | 115,007$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…a9e7backed Yes | 0c | 61,422$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fe…f8e6backed Yes | 0c | 59,564$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 0c | 24,749$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0f…ff65backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…ffe2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 9,713$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 1c | 8,712$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 8,395$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…9ba9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c86…7a72backed Yes | 2c | 4,260$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 1c | 3,768$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0d…ffb0backed Yes | 2c | 3,173$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…bcc9backed Yes | 1c | 3,075$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…934bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,388$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 2,026$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,980$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 2c | 1,258$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3374…ec71backed Yes | 2c | 1,079$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…48adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,007$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +1,587.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 3c | 1,006$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…a92dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 4c | 882.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 2c | 633.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…42adbacked Yes | 7c | 585.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb3…a715backed Yes | 3c | 538.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…1de1backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.