Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbfa34f5c5c9d1e2c3c5c82f210411ab4bf627dd0aba517989dc37d74431d25a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,126,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,115,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,126,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 484 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23d6…f16dbacked No | 0c | 159,135$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…d8fbbacked No | 0c | 140,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabe…fe97backed No | 0c | 99,981$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 39c | 56,201$21,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,449.03 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…a9e7backed No | 0c | 39,790$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 32c | 36,589$11,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,841.75 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…9d82backed Yes | 28c | 32,342$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,341.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 45c | 22,684$10,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,392.63 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 79c | 14,958$11,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,171.79 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 49c | 11,153$5,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,720.73 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…90c0backed Yes | 79c | 9,594$7,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 28c | 9,325$2,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,749.47 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 49c | 9,265$4,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,721.07 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 8,981$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.35 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 34c | 8,477$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,569.28 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 72c | 8,184$5,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 45c | 7,882$3,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,365.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 18c | 7,437$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,094.16 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 24c | 6,400$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,876.39 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 34c | 6,217$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,121.34 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 40c | 6,154$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,708.54 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 67c | 5,192$3,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.69 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 30c | 4,671$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,267.39 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 26c | 3,866$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,878.79 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbe…b48fbacked Yes | 66c | 3,390$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 11c | 3,211$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.46 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 27c | 3,084$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed No | 10c | 3,008$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 20c | 2,906$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,334.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 19c | 2,842$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.86 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 73c | 2,800$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,699$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.88 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 30c | 2,611$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.16 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…7afdbacked No | 2c | 2,540$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +320%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 22c | 2,525$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.44 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 7c | 2,524$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 26c | 2,512$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.05 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 25c | 2,398$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.68 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 36c | 2,395$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.17 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…4fdabacked Yes | 45c | 2,105$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e0…b6f5backed Yes | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb14e…0ad5backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 13c | 1,984$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.12 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,816$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 46c | 1,662$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.4 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 38c | 1,574$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.58 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…a272backed No | 11c | 1,529$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544d…97a9backed Yes | 46c | 1,516$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 20c | 1,449$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.45 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d7…fab0backed Yes | 36c | 1,402$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 31c | 1,369$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.4 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 42c | 1,284$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.76 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 1,264$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.64 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 24c | 1,248$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.12 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 23c | 1,125$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.8 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 62c | 1,120$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 24c | 1,083$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.02 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…d050backed Yes | 28c | 1,041$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 54c | 1,033$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.58 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,005$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.37 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed No | 61c | 999.96$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 28c | 998.9$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.9 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…7501backed Yes | 29c | 970.81$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 51c | 951.42$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…656cbacked Yes | 55c | 911.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 40c | 890.56$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.95 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 44c | 879.5$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.6 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x835d…62dcbacked Yes | 34c | 876.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 12c | 866.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 25c | 840$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 56c | 827.39$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.46 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 23c | 811.2$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.2 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 801.1$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.24 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…952abacked Yes | 27c | 800$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 60c | 799.97$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…eb06backed Yes | 34c | 790.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…d82ebacked Yes | 37c | 770.88$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…79b1backed Yes | 16c | 749.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b08…c73dbacked Yes | 38c | 744.78$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd213…cd36backed No | 62c | 744.78$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 79c | 738.12$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 20c | 722.53$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +147%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 35c | 721.99$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.59 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 24c | 713.47$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.15 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…b633backed Yes | 30c | 711.68$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…ddccbacked Yes | 36c | 704.07$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.07 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 55c | 703.14$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.3 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…5aa7backed Yes | 27c | 702.54$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 36c | 693.93$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.27 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 21c | 688.36$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.69 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 54c | 679.88$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.97 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 37c | 659.99$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.39 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…e5f0backed Yes | 24c | 625$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 45c | 620.92$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.7 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…f792backed Yes | 75c | 616.25$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 60c | 608.19$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.08 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 20c | 603.92$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.18 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.