TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x088f…131b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 54 out of 100; worst Tweets at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT2114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$69.11
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$327.16
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$330
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$338.2
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$440
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$360
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$84.59
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+338.9%+$840.04
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$110.01
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$389.56
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+92.3%+$384.04
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$26.13
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+669.2%+$265.38
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$557Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$556.83
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14.5
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 21 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+109.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+42%+$4.41
TikTok banned in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+177.8%+$177.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PARIVISION win the EWC Dota 2 Tournamentbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$10.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+38.9%+$135.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 174.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$6.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.